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Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League Ammochostos Stadium, Larnaca
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Match Events

19' Event
Ivanovic D.
30'
Miramon J.
34' Event
Ivanovic D.

AI Match Summary

The Cyprus League game between Nea Salamis and AEK Larnaca finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AEK Larnaca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Nea Salamis
15%
Draws
57%
AEK Larnaca
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AEK Larnaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Nea Salamis carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and AEK Larnaca have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Nea Salamis Clean Sheet 10%
AEK Larnaca Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nea Salamis AEK Larnaca
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 18 14
Draws 7 8
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 2.28 1.65
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Club Friendly
AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis
2:1
Sep 6, 2026 Cyprus League
Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca
1:4
Jan 12, 2025 Cyprus League
AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis
2:0
Sep 27, 2024 Cyprus League
Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca
1:3
Jan 12, 2024 Cyprus League
Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nea Salamis Compare

Top Goalscorer Grandsir S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

AEK Larnaca Compare

Top Goalscorer Ivanovic D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bajic R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nea Salamis 34 / 100
AEK Larnaca 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nea Salamis AEK Larnaca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Larnaca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nea Salamis scored in 93% of their last 29 outings.

AEK Larnaca let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Nea Salamis stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nea Salamis VS AEK Larnaca
2.63 Goals Scored 2.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nea Salamis

(Home)
03 Oct
Ermis
0 : 3
Nea Salamis
27 Sept
AEK Larnaca
2 : 1
Nea Salamis
19 Sept
Nea Salamis
3 : 0
Anorthosis
11 Sept
AEL Limassol
2 : 1
Nea Salamis
06 Sept
Nea Salamis
1 : 4
AEK Larnaca
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AEK Larnaca

(Away)
03 Oct
AEK Larnaca
3 : 0
Apollon Limassol
27 Sept
AEK Larnaca
2 : 1
Nea Salamis
18 Sept
Omonia 29th May
1 : 2
AEK Larnaca
13 Sept
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Pafos
06 Sept
Nea Salamis
1 : 4
AEK Larnaca
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Omonia 5 3 2 0 11:2 11
2 AEK Larnaca 4 3 0 1 9:4 9
3 AEL Limassol 4 3 0 1 6:7 9
4 Pafos 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
5 Apollon Limassol 4 1 3 0 7:5 6
6 Omonia Aradippou 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
7 Omonia 29th May 4 1 2 1 9:7 5
8 Aris Limassol 4 1 2 1 4:6 5
9 APOEL 4 1 1 2 10:7 4
10 Ol. Nicosia 4 0 4 0 7:7 4
11 Nea Salamis 4 1 1 2 8:9 4
12 Anorthosis 4 1 0 3 3:9 3
13 Karmiotissa 5 0 3 2 3:9 3
14 Krasava 4 0 0 4 2:10 0
Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Cyprus League (Relegation Group)