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Nebitci vs Ahal

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
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AI Match Summary

The Yokary Liga game between Nebitci and Ahal finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ahal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Nebitci
20%
Draws
51%
Ahal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ahal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ahal come out ahead of Nebitci on wins alone.
  • Model gives Ahal a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Ahal have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Nebitci Clean Sheet 10%
Ahal Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nebitci Ahal
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 17
Draws 6 5
Losses 15 6
Goals Scored 0.86 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Nebitci
3:0
Jun 13, 2026 Yokary Liga
Nebitci vs Ahal
0:4
May 2, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Nebitci
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Yokary Liga
Nebitci vs Ahal
0:3
Aug 6, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Nebitci
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nebitci 10 / 100
Ahal 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nebitci Ahal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ahal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Nebitci stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Nebitci's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Ahal has conceded goals in 50% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nebitci VS Ahal
1.13 Goals Scored 2.5
2 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nebitci

(Home)
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Nebitci
2 : 4
Arkadag
30 Aug
Kopetdag Asgabat
2 : 2
Nebitci
22 Aug
Nebitci
1 : 1
FC Asgabat
15 Aug
Merw
0 : 1
Nebitci
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Ahal

(Away)
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
22 Aug
Ahal
4 : 0
Merw
16 Aug
Arkadag
2 : 1
Ahal
07 Aug
Ahal
3 : 0
Kopetdag Asgabat
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