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Nebitci vs Ahal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nebitci host Ahal in the Yokary Liga. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Nebitci at 0.9 goals for, 1.72 against; Ahal at 2.2 for, 1.2 against. Head-to-head, Nebitci have won 0 to Ahal's 5, with 0 draws. They last met on Sep 12, 2026, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 1.13 vs 2.75, favoring Ahal. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Nebitci
15%
Draws
51%
Ahal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ahal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Ahal have won more games recently than Nebitci.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Yokary Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Ahal have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Nebitci Clean Sheet 10%
Ahal Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nebitci Ahal
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 18
Draws 5 4
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 0.9 2.2
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Nebitci
3:0
Jun 13, 2026 Yokary Liga
Nebitci vs Ahal
0:4
May 2, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Nebitci
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Yokary Liga
Nebitci vs Ahal
0:3
Aug 6, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Nebitci
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nebitci 34 / 100
Ahal 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nebitci Ahal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ahal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nebitci scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Ahal's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Ahal has conceded goals in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nebitci VS Ahal
1.13 Goals Scored 3.13
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nebitci

(Home)
11 Oct
Nebitci
3 : 0
Sagadam
19 Sept
Nebitci
1 : 3
Altyn Asyr
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Nebitci
2 : 4
Arkadag
30 Aug
Kopetdag Asgabat
2 : 2
Nebitci
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Ahal

(Away)
07 Oct
Ahal
0 : 2
Altyn Asyr
28 Sept
Ahal
0 : 4
Arkadag
19 Sept
FC Asgabat
2 : 5
Ahal
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
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