Sport Picks

Uganda

Premier League MTN Omondi Stadium

Kampala City

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

NEC FC play Kampala City in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, NEC FC averaged 1.03 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. Kampala City averaged 1.67 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. In past meetings, NEC FC won 3, Kampala City won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 13, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for NEC FC and 0.69 for Kampala City. This points to a Kampala City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

NEC FC

17%

Draws

44%

Kampala City

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Kampala City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

NEC FC picked up more points recently compared to Kampala City.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 0.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 55%

Over 2.5 Goals 39%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%

NEC FC Clean Sheet 28%

Kampala City Clean Sheet 17%

First Half Goal 50%

Second Half Goal 52%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	NEC FC	Kampala City
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	14	19
Draws	11	4
Losses	6	7
Goals Scored	1.03	1.67
Goals Conceded	0.71	0.77
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.13	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2026 Premier League

NEC FC vs Kampala City

Possession: 51% - 52% Cards: 2 - 3

3:1

Dec 12, 2025 Premier League

Kampala City vs NEC FC

Possession: 42% - 49% Cards: 0 - 4

2:1

Feb 13, 2025 Premier League

NEC FC vs Kampala City

Possession: 42% - 40% Cards: 1 - 1

1:0

Nov 21, 2024 Premier League

Kampala City vs NEC FC

Possession: 50% - 50% Cards: 1 - 2

0:1

Feb 28, 2024 Premier League

NEC FC vs Kampala City

Possession: 45% - 42% Cards: 1 - 2

0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

NEC FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Basangwa R.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Seremba J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Kampala City Compare

Top Goalscorer Ahimbisibwe Ivan

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

NEC FC 41 / 100

Kampala City 43 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

NEC FC Kampala City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Kampala City or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26%

3.23

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.2%

3.03

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

NEC FC attacking → ← attacking Kampala City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

NEC FC scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Kampala City let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

NEC FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Kampala City lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 61

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

0.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vipers	30	19	10	1	55:17	67
2	Kampala City	30	19	5	6	46:22	62
3	Villa	30	18	7	5	47:17	61
4	Kitara	30	16	8	6	43:22	56
5	Entebbe UPPC	30	14	9	7	30:20	51
6	NEC FC	30	13	12	5	31:22	51
7	Police	30	13	8	9	42:35	47
8	Maroons	30	9	11	10	26:27	38
9	BUL	30	9	10	11	30:33	37
10	Express FC	30	9	10	11	28:31	37
11	Uganda Revenue	30	5	16	9	27:30	31
12	Mbarara City	30	6	9	15	26:46	27
13	Lugazi	30	5	10	15	19:36	25
14	UPDF FC	30	5	7	18	24:41	22
15	Calvary	30	4	9	17	14:39	21
16	Buhimba	30	4	3	23	16:66	15