Sport Picks

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NEC FC vs UPDF FC

Uganda Uganda

Premier League MTN Omondi Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

80' Event
Ronald Jimmy Paul I.

AI Match Summary

NEC FC host UPDF FC in the Premier League. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Recent numbers: NEC FC at 0.75 goals for, 0.13 against; UPDF FC at 1.13 for, 1.25 against. Past meetings favor NEC FC slightly — 2-0-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 3, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.00 vs 0.63, favoring NEC FC. Under markets carry more value than backing a winner outright.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
NEC FC
11%
Draws
9%
UPDF FC
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: NEC FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • NEC FC has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to UPDF FC.
  • Model forecasts a 80% win probability edge for NEC FC.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Premier League provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
NEC FC Clean Sheet 68%
UPDF FC Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric NEC FC UPDF FC
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 5
Draws 11 7
Losses 6 18
Goals Scored 0.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2026 Premier League
NEC FC vs UPDF FC
1:0
Dec 16, 2025 Premier League
UPDF FC vs NEC FC
0:0
Apr 4, 2025 Premier League
UPDF FC vs NEC FC
0:0
Sep 24, 2024 Premier League
NEC FC vs UPDF FC
1:0
Feb 13, 2024 Premier League
UPDF FC vs NEC FC
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

NEC FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ronald Jimmy Paul I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

UPDF FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

NEC FC 86 / 100
UPDF FC 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
NEC FC UPDF FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

NEC FC scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

UPDF FC let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

NEC FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

UPDF FC lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

NEC FC VS UPDF FC
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
0.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
13% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vipers301910155:1767
2Kampala City30195646:2262
3Villa30187547:1761
4Kitara30168643:2256
5Entebbe UPPC30149730:2051
6NEC FC301312531:2251
7Police30138942:3547
8Maroons309111026:2738
9BUL309101130:3337
10Express FC309101128:3137
11Uganda Revenue30516927:3031
12Mbarara City30691526:4627
13Lugazi305101519:3625
14UPDF FC30571824:4122
15Calvary30491714:3921
16Buhimba30432316:6615