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Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum Prediction & H2H Stats

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana
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Match Events

2' Event
Odilov A.
42' Event
Iskanderov J.
44'
Rizakulov G.

AI Match Summary

The Super League game between Neftchi Fargona and Qizilqum finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neftchi Fargona.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Neftchi Fargona
15%
Draws
36%
Qizilqum
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Neftchi Fargona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Qizilqum haven't matched Neftchi Fargona's recent run of results.
  • 36% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Neftchi Fargona Clean Sheet 16%
Qizilqum Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Neftchi Fargona Qizilqum
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 22 11
Draws 4 4
Losses 5 13
Goals Scored 2.1 1.21
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum
5:0
Apr 4, 2026 Super League
Qizilqum vs Neftchi Fargona
0:4
Nov 22, 2025 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum
4:1
Jun 28, 2025 Super League
Qizilqum vs Neftchi Fargona
1:1
Sep 19, 2024 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Neftchi Fargona Compare

Top Goalscorer Odilov A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Iskanderov J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Qizilqum Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neftchi Fargona 36 / 100
Qizilqum 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Neftchi Fargona Qizilqum

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Qizilqum Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Neftchi Fargona's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Qizilqum conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Solid form: Neftchi Fargona remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Neftchi Fargona VS Qizilqum
2.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Neftchi Fargona

(Home)
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1
Neftchi Fargona
14 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1
Termez Surkhon
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2
Neftchi Fargona
29 Aug
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0
Pakhtakor
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Qizilqum

(Away)
21 Sept
Xorazm Urganch
1 : 3
Qizilqum
10 Sept
Din. Samarkand
1 : 0
Qizilqum
05 Sept
Qizilqum
3 : 2
Buxoro
26 Aug
Qizilqum
1 : 0
Nasaf Qarshi
18 Aug
Sogdiana
2 : 1
Qizilqum
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftchi Fargona 22 16 3 3 50:17 51
2 Pakhtakor 22 14 7 1 39:20 49
3 Navbahor Namangan 22 13 5 4 39:21 44
4 Lok. Tashkent 22 10 5 7 36:28 35
5 OKMK 22 10 5 7 31:29 35
6 Nasaf Qarshi 22 9 7 6 33:21 34
7 Buxoro 22 10 4 8 32:29 34
8 Din. Samarkand 22 8 6 8 33:34 30
9 Andijan 22 9 3 10 27:28 30
10 Qizilqum 22 9 2 11 23:30 29
11 Sogdiana 22 8 4 10 38:43 28
12 Termez Surkhon 22 7 5 10 19:28 26
13 Bunyodkor 22 7 1 14 22:36 22
14 Xorazm Urganch 22 5 6 11 18:32 21
15 Kokand 1912 22 4 8 10 19:30 20
16 Mashal Muborak 22 1 1 20 11:44 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)