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Neftchi Fargona vs Sogdiana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana
Neftchi Fargona Logo

Neftchi Fargona

3 - 0
FT
Sogdiana Logo

Sogdiana

Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Marusic Z.
34'
Ciger B.
37'
Abdurashidov A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Super League game between Neftchi Fargona and Sogdiana finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neftchi Fargona.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Neftchi Fargona
20%
Draws
33%
Sogdiana
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Neftchi Fargona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Sogdiana haven't matched Neftchi Fargona's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Neftchi Fargona a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Neftchi Fargona have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Neftchi Fargona Clean Sheet 16%
Sogdiana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Neftchi Fargona Sogdiana
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 20 10
Draws 4 4
Losses 4 13
Goals Scored 2.14 1.59
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.78
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Sogdiana
3:0
Jul 21, 2026 Super League
Sogdiana vs Neftchi Fargona
1:5
Sep 30, 2025 Super League
Sogdiana vs Neftchi Fargona
0:1
May 4, 2025 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Sogdiana
2:1
Aug 20, 2024 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Sogdiana
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Neftchi Fargona Compare

Top Goalscorer Marusic Z.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Perica S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Sogdiana Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neftchi Fargona 36 / 100
Sogdiana 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Neftchi Fargona Sogdiana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Neftchi Fargona found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Sogdiana let in goals in 81% of their last 27 matches.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Neftchi Fargona remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Neftchi Fargona VS Sogdiana
2.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Neftchi Fargona

(Home)
07 Oct
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 2
Xorazm Urganch
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1
Neftchi Fargona
14 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1
Termez Surkhon
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2
Neftchi Fargona
Page 1 of 6

Sogdiana

(Away)
20 Sept
Sogdiana
1 : 2
OKMK
10 Sept
Xorazm Urganch
0 : 0
Sogdiana
05 Sept
Sogdiana
5 : 2
Mashal Muborak
30 Aug
Sogdiana
2 : 0
Jayxun
23 Aug
Neftchi Fargona
3 : 0
Sogdiana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftchi Fargona 23 16 4 3 52:19 52
2 Pakhtakor 23 15 7 1 42:21 52
3 Navbahor Namangan 22 13 5 4 39:21 44
4 Nasaf Qarshi 23 10 7 6 35:22 37
5 Buxoro 23 11 4 8 35:31 37
6 Lok. Tashkent 22 10 5 7 36:28 35
7 OKMK 22 10 5 7 31:29 35
8 Din. Samarkand 23 8 6 9 34:36 30
9 Andijan 23 9 3 11 29:31 30
10 Qizilqum 23 9 3 11 23:30 30
11 Sogdiana 22 8 4 10 38:43 28
12 Termez Surkhon 23 7 6 10 19:28 27
13 Kokand 1912 23 5 8 10 22:30 23
14 Xorazm Urganch 23 5 7 11 20:34 22
15 Bunyodkor 23 7 1 15 23:39 22
16 Mashal Muborak 23 1 1 21 11:47 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)