Sport Picks
Neftchi Fargona vs Termez Surkhon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uzbekistan
Super League Istiqlol Stadium, Fergana 
Match Events
12'
12'
Jovovic V.
Assist: Odilov A.
16'
16'
Perica S.
24'
24'
Abduganiyev N.
AI Match Summary
The Super League game between Neftchi Fargona and Termez Surkhon finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neftchi Fargona.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
20%
33%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Neftchi Fargona
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Neftchi Fargona come out ahead of Termez Surkhon on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Neftchi Fargona's way, sitting at 50%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Neftchi Fargona Clean Sheet 20%
Termez Surkhon Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Neftchi Fargona | Termez Surkhon |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 20 | 9 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 4 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 2.14 | 0.86 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.86 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 9, 2026 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Termez Surkhon
2:1
Mar 5, 2026 Super League
Termez Surkhon vs Neftchi Fargona
0:3
Nov 2, 2025 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Termez Surkhon
2:1
Jun 15, 2025 Super League
Termez Surkhon vs Neftchi Fargona
0:0
Nov 9, 2024 Super League
Termez Surkhon vs Neftchi Fargona
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Neftchi Fargona Compare
Top Goalscorer Jovovic V.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Termez Surkhon Compare
Top Goalscorer Yusupov K.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Neftchi Fargona 49 / 100
Termez Surkhon 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Neftchi Fargona Termez Surkhon
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Neftchi Fargona Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Neftchi Fargona's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Termez Surkhon let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Solid form: Neftchi Fargona remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Neftchi Fargona VS Termez Surkhon
2.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 25%
75% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Neftchi Fargona
(Home) 07 Oct
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 2 Xorazm Urganch
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
14 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1 Termez Surkhon
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2 Neftchi Fargona
Page 1 of 6
07 Oct
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 2 Xorazm Urganch
14 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1 Termez Surkhon
29 Aug
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0 Pakhtakor
23 Aug
Neftchi Fargona
3 : 0 Sogdiana
Page 1 of 4
Termez Surkhon
(Away) 10 Oct
Qizilqum
0 : 0 Termez Surkhon
20 Sept
Termez Surkhon
1 : 0 Kokand 1912
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1 Termez Surkhon
04 Sept
Bunyodkor
0 : 1 Termez Surkhon
29 Aug
Termez Surkhon
0 : 1 PFK Guliston
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Qizilqum
0 : 0 Termez Surkhon
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1 Termez Surkhon
04 Sept
Bunyodkor
0 : 1 Termez Surkhon
21 Aug
Pakhtakor
0 : 0 Termez Surkhon
03 Aug
Kokand 1912
0 : 1 Termez Surkhon
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fargona | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 52:19 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 23 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 42:21 | 52 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 39:21 | 44 |
| 4 | Nasaf Qarshi | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 35:22 | 37 |
| 5 | Buxoro | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 35:31 | 37 |
| 6 | Lok. Tashkent | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36:28 | 35 |
| 7 | OKMK | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 31:29 | 35 |
| 8 | Din. Samarkand | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 34:36 | 30 |
| 9 | Andijan | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 29:31 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 23:30 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 38:43 | 28 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 19:28 | 27 |
| 13 | Kokand 1912 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 22:30 | 23 |
| 14 | Xorazm Urganch | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 20:34 | 22 |
| 15 | Bunyodkor | 23 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 23:39 | 22 |
| 16 | Mashal Muborak | 23 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 11:47 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)
