Sport Picks

Russia

FNL 2025/2026 Neftekhimik Stadium

Neftekhimik

3 - 1

S. Kostroma

Our Tip

Match Events

14'

Mashukov I.

38'

Kalmykov A.

(Penalty)

46'

Sub

Platonov P. In: Shiryaev M.

Out: Platonov P.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neftekhimik in this FNL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Neftekhimik.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Neftekhimik

39%

Draws

31%

S. Kostroma

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

S. Kostroma have won more games recently than Neftekhimik.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%

Neftekhimik Clean Sheet 68%

S. Kostroma Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Neftekhimik	S. Kostroma
Matches Played	26	27
Wins	7	8
Draws	10	10
Losses	9	9
Goals Scored	1.25	0.75
Goals Conceded	1.5	1
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 FNL

Neftekhimik vs S. Kostroma

Possession: 43% - 46% Cards: 1 - 1

3:1

Aug 3, 2025 FNL

S. Kostroma vs Neftekhimik

Possession: 50% - 47% Cards: 3 - 4

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Neftekhimik Compare

Top Goalscorer Magomedov R.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

S. Kostroma Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neftekhimik 41 / 100

S. Kostroma 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Neftekhimik S. Kostroma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEF Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

S. Kostroma let in goals in 81% of their last 27 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Neftekhimik has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Neftekhimik scored in 58% of their last 26 games.

Scoring Trends

Neftekhimik VS S. Kostroma

1.25 Goals Scored 0.75

1.5 Goals Conceded 1

75% Over 1.5 63%

38% Over 2.5 13%

38% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rodina Moscow	34	19	11	4	58:28	68
2	Fakel Voronezh	34	20	8	6	44:22	68
3	Ural	34	18	7	9	51:31	61
4	R. Volgograd	34	15	11	8	47:26	56
5	Kamaz	34	12	13	9	46:34	49
6	Yenisey	34	13	10	11	37:35	49
7	S. Kostroma	34	12	13	9	46:41	49
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	34	11	15	8	34:28	48
9	Torpedo Moscow	34	12	10	12	37:39	46
10	Chelyabinsk	34	10	14	10	42:40	44
11	Neftekhimik	34	10	13	11	40:41	43
12	SKA Khabarovsk	34	10	12	12	37:45	42
13	Arsenal Tula	34	8	15	11	42:44	39
14	Ulyanovsk	34	9	10	15	35:48	37
15	Ufa	34	9	10	15	32:40	37
16	Chernomorets Novorossijsk	34	9	8	17	37:49	35
17	Saratov	34	5	11	18	16:44	26
18	FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye	34	5	7	22	30:76	22