Sport Picks

Russia

FNL 2025/2026 Neftekhimik Stadium

Ufa

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neftekhimik play Ufa in the FNL 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Neftekhimik averaged 1.47 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. Ufa averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. In past meetings, Neftekhimik won 3, Ufa won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 28, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Neftekhimik and 0.88 for Ufa. This points to a Neftekhimik double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%

Neftekhimik

21%

Draws

34%

Ufa

Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Neftekhimik

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Neftekhimik picked up more points recently compared to Ufa.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 0.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 74%

Over 2.5 Goals 50%

Over 3.5 Goals 30%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Neftekhimik Clean Sheet 25%

Ufa Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 67%

Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Neftekhimik	Ufa
Matches Played	32	29
Wins	11	9
Draws	12	6
Losses	9	14
Goals Scored	1.47	1.1
Goals Conceded	1.34	1.34
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 FNL

Neftekhimik vs Ufa

Possession: 51% - 57% Cards: 1 - 3

2:0

Oct 30, 2025 Russian Cup

Ufa vs Neftekhimik

Possession: 51% - 53% Cards: 3 - 1

1:2

Oct 25, 2025 FNL

Ufa vs Neftekhimik

Possession: 45% - 51% Cards: 1 - 2

3:2

May 4, 2025 FNL

Ufa vs Neftekhimik

Possession: 41% - 45% Cards: 1 - 2

1:0

Jul 21, 2024 FNL

Neftekhimik vs Ufa

Possession: 58% - 44% Cards: 1 - 3

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Neftekhimik Compare

Top Goalscorer Kakhidze A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Shiltsov K.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Ufa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neftekhimik 46 / 100

Ufa 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Neftekhimik Ufa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Neftekhimik or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +21.5%

2.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.5%

2.27

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Neftekhimik attacking → ← attacking Ufa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Neftekhimik scored in 69% of their last 32 games.

Ufa let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Neftekhimik went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Ufa lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 33

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rodina Moscow	34	19	11	4	58:28	68
2	Fakel Voronezh	34	20	8	6	44:22	68
3	Ural	34	18	7	9	51:31	61
4	R. Volgograd	34	15	11	8	47:26	56
5	Kamaz	34	12	13	9	46:34	49
6	Yenisey	34	13	10	11	37:35	49
7	S. Kostroma	34	12	13	9	46:41	49
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	34	11	15	8	34:28	48
9	Torpedo Moscow	34	12	10	12	37:39	46
10	Chelyabinsk	34	10	14	10	42:40	44
11	Neftekhimik	34	10	13	11	40:41	43
12	SKA Khabarovsk	34	10	12	12	37:45	42
13	Arsenal Tula	34	8	15	11	42:44	39
14	Ulyanovsk	34	9	10	15	35:48	37
15	Ufa	34	9	10	15	32:40	37
16	Chernomorets Novorossijsk	34	9	8	17	37:49	35
17	Saratov	34	5	11	18	16:44	26
18	FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye	34	5	7	22	30:76	22