Sport Picks
Neftochimic Burgas vs Rodopa Smolyan Prediction & H2H Stats
Bulgaria
Third League - South-East 2025/2026 efbet Arena, Burgas 
AI Match Summary
Neftochimic Burgas in this Third League - South-East 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Neftochimic Burgas.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
56%
20%
24%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Neftochimic Burgas
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
56%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Neftochimic Burgas lately — more wins on the board than Rodopa Smolyan.
- Neftochimic Burgas are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Third League - South-East 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Neftochimic Burgas have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Neftochimic Burgas Clean Sheet 19%
Rodopa Smolyan Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Neftochimic Burgas | Rodopa Smolyan |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 16 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 4 |
| Losses | 5 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.68 | 1.46 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.07 | 1.79 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 13, 2026 Third League - South-East
Neftochimic Burgas vs Rodopa Smolyan
3:1
Nov 8, 2025 Third League - South-East
Rodopa Smolyan vs Neftochimic Burgas
2:0
May 15, 2011 Third League - South-East
Rodopa Smolyan vs Neftochimic Burgas
0:4
Oct 31, 2010 Third League - South-East
Neftochimic Burgas vs Rodopa Smolyan
4:0
Mar 22, 2009 B PFG East
Neftochimic Burgas vs Rodopa Smolyan
4:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Neftochimic Burgas 85 / 100
Rodopa Smolyan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Neftochimic Burgas Rodopa Smolyan
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Neftochimic Burgas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Neftochimic Burgas scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.
Rodopa Smolyan has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.
Neftochimic Burgas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Neftochimic Burgas VS Rodopa Smolyan
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Neftochimic Burgas
(Home) 04 Oct
Neftochimic Burgas
2 : 1 Svoge
26 Sept
Yambol 1915
0 : 2 Neftochimic Burgas
23 Sept
Neftochimic Burgas
3 : 0 Lok. Plovdiv II
19 Sept
Neftochimic Burgas
2 : 0 Zagorets
12 Sept
Sozopol
4 : 2 Neftochimic Burgas
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Neftochimic Burgas
2 : 1 Svoge
23 Sept
Neftochimic Burgas
3 : 0 Lok. Plovdiv II
19 Sept
Neftochimic Burgas
2 : 0 Zagorets
22 Aug
Neftochimic Burgas
2 : 0 Maritsa Milevo
08 Aug
Neftochimic Burgas
0 : 2 Botev II
Page 1 of 4
Rodopa Smolyan
(Away) 04 Oct
Rodopa Smolyan
1 : 3 Nesebar
26 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
2 : 0 Rodopa Smolyan
19 Sept
Rodopa Smolyan
5 : 3 Maritsa Plovdiv
12 Sept
Rozova Dolina
1 : 1 Rodopa Smolyan
05 Sept
Rodopa Smolyan
0 : 0 OFC Haskovo
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
2 : 0 Rodopa Smolyan
12 Sept
Rozova Dolina
1 : 1 Rodopa Smolyan
29 Aug
Yambol 1915
5 : 1 Rodopa Smolyan
15 Aug
Sozopol
0 : 2 Rodopa Smolyan
09 Aug
Lok. Plovdiv II
0 : 3 Rodopa Smolyan
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nesebar | 36 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 116:22 | 91 |
| 2 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 90:40 | 75 |
| 3 | Neftochimic Burgas | 36 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 53:39 | 66 |
| 4 | Yambol 1915 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 72:41 | 66 |
| 5 | Levski Karlovo | 36 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 64:53 | 65 |
| 6 | Maritsa Milevo | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 64:32 | 60 |
| 7 | Spartak Plovdiv | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 64:58 | 54 |
| 8 | Sozopol | 36 | 16 | 6 | 14 | 50:38 | 54 |
| 9 | OFC Haskovo | 36 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 52:48 | 52 |
| 10 | Zagorets | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 52:60 | 49 |
| 11 | Rozova Dolina | 36 | 14 | 6 | 16 | 45:52 | 48 |
| 12 | Gigant Saedinenie | 36 | 14 | 5 | 17 | 56:59 | 47 |
| 13 | Rodopa Smolyan | 36 | 14 | 4 | 18 | 51:70 | 46 |
| 14 | Atletik Kuklen | 36 | 13 | 3 | 20 | 43:78 | 42 |
| 15 | Sekirovo Rakovski | 36 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 30:53 | 35 |
| 16 | Dimitrovgrad | 36 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 42:82 | 35 |
| 17 | Lok. Plovdiv II | 36 | 9 | 6 | 21 | 44:53 | 33 |
| 18 | Rakovski 2011 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 25 | 46:94 | 27 |
| 19 | Asenovets | 36 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 30:92 | 23 |
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