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Negele Arsi Ketema FC vs Gamo Chencha FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ethiopia Ethiopia

Premier League
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Negele Arsi Ketema FC host Gamo Chencha FC in the Premier League. Negele Arsi Ketema FC go into this one as the clear favorite. Negele Arsi Ketema FC have averaged 0.93 scored and 0.86 conceded recently, against Gamo Chencha FC's 0 scored and 1.5 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (0.88 xG vs 1.00) point toward Negele Arsi Ketema FC. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
25%
Draws
35%
Gamo Chencha FC
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Negele Arsi Ketema FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Negele Arsi Ketema FC have won more games recently than Gamo Chencha FC.
  • Model gives Negele Arsi Ketema FC a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Negele Arsi Ketema FC Clean Sheet 20%
Gamo Chencha FC Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Negele Arsi Ketema FC Gamo Chencha FC
Matches Played 28 2
Wins 9 0
Draws 13 0
Losses 6 2
Goals Scored 0.93 0
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Negele Arsi Ketema FC 49 / 100
Gamo Chencha FC 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Negele Arsi Ketema FC Gamo Chencha FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Negele Arsi Ketema FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gamo Chencha FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 100% of 2 matches.

Negele Arsi Ketema FC's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Negele Arsi Ketema FC has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: Gamo Chencha FC has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Negele Arsi Ketema FC VS Gamo Chencha FC
1 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 25%
63% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Negele Arsi Ketema FC

(Home)
21 Oct
Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)
0 : 3
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
16 Oct
Ethio Electric S.C.
0 : 0
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
10 Oct
St. Georges
1 : 1
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
01 Jul
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
3 : 0
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
26 Jun
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
2 : 0
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Page 1 of 6

Gamo Chencha FC

(Away)
22 Oct
Gamo Chencha FC
0 : 1
Mechal SC
11 Oct
Gamo Chencha FC
0 : 2
Ethiopian Insurance

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3 2 1 0 3:1 7
2 Bahir Dar Kenema 3 2 0 1 4:2 6
3 Mechal SC 3 2 0 1 2:1 6
4 Negele Arsi Ketema FC 3 1 2 0 4:1 5
5 Halaba Ketema FC 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
6 Adama City 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
7 Ethiopian Insurance 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
8 Ethio Electric S.C. 3 1 1 1 1:1 4
9 Sheger Ketema FC 3 1 1 1 1:1 4
10 Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) 3 1 0 2 2:5 3
11 Fasil Kenema 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
12 St. Georges 3 0 2 1 3:4 2
13 Hawassa 3 0 2 1 2:3 2
14 Welayta Dicha 3 0 2 1 2:4 2
15 Welwalo Adigrat 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
16 Hadiya Hossana 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
17 Sidama Bunna 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
18 Gamo Chencha FC 2 0 0 2 0:3 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)