Sport Picks
Nelson Suburbs FC vs Auckland United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
New Zealand
Chatham Cup 
Match Events
11'
11'
Wallace B.
52'
52'
Myers T.
85'
85'
Reynolds J.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nelson Suburbs FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
38%
/ Low Confidence
- Nelson Suburbs FC haven't matched Auckland United's recent run of results.
- Auckland United are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- Auckland United arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Nelson Suburbs FC, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Nelson Suburbs FC Clean Sheet 13%
Auckland United Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nelson Suburbs FC | Auckland United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 13 | 29 |
| Wins | 7 | 10 |
| Draws | 0 | 8 |
| Losses | 6 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.54 | 2.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.46 | 1.79 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 26, 2026 Chatham Cup
Nelson Suburbs FC vs Auckland United
2:1
Aug 16, 2025 Chatham Cup
Auckland United vs Nelson Suburbs FC
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nelson Suburbs FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Myers T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Reynolds J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Auckland United Compare
Top Goalscorer Wallace B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nelson Suburbs FC 27 / 100
Auckland United 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nelson Suburbs FC Auckland United
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Auckland United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Auckland United conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.
Nelson Suburbs FC found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (13 games).
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Nelson Suburbs FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nelson Suburbs FC VS Auckland United
1.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Nelson Suburbs FC
(Home) 15 Aug
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0 Nelson Suburbs FC
26 Jul
Nelson Suburbs FC
2 : 1 Auckland United
04 Jul
Nelson Suburbs FC
5 : 0 Northern AFC
16 Aug
Auckland United
3 : 0 Nelson Suburbs FC
26 Jul
Nelson Suburbs FC
2 : 1 Birkenhead
Page 1 of 3
26 Jul
Nelson Suburbs FC
2 : 1 Auckland United
04 Jul
Nelson Suburbs FC
5 : 0 Northern AFC
26 Jul
Nelson Suburbs FC
2 : 1 Birkenhead
26 Aug
Nelson Suburbs FC
0 : 2 Birkenhead
05 Aug
Nelson Suburbs FC
1 : 0 East Coast
Page 1 of 2
Auckland United
(Away) 10 Oct
Auckland FC 2
2 : 2 Auckland United
04 Oct
Auckland United
7 : 1 Napier City
26 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 1 Auckland United
26 Jul
Nelson Suburbs FC
2 : 1 Auckland United
04 Jul
Auckland United
3 : 1 Cambridge
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Auckland FC 2
2 : 2 Auckland United
26 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 1 Auckland United
26 Jul
Nelson Suburbs FC
2 : 1 Auckland United
07 Dec
Auckland FC 2
3 : 0 Auckland United
23 Nov
Western Suburbs
1 : 0 Auckland United
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
South Auckland Rangers 0
Auckland City 3
Takapuna Afc 0
Nelson Suburbs FC 5
Northern AFC 0
Auckland United 3
Cambridge 1
Dunedin City Royals 0
Cashmere Technical 9
Island Bay 1
Miramar 3
Melville 0
Hibiscus Coast 1
Petone 0
Napier City 4
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
Auckland City 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 2
Auckland United 1
Cashmere Technical 2
Miramar 1
Hibiscus Coast 2
Napier City 5
Semi-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
Nelson Suburbs FC 0
Cashmere Technical 2
Napier City 1
Final
Fencibles United AFC 2
Cashmere Technical 1
