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Nelson vs Dunedin

New Zealand New Zealand

Football Championship 2000
Nelson Logo

Nelson

2 - 1
FT
Dunedin Logo

Dunedin

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Football Championship 2000 game between Nelson and Dunedin finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nelson.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Nelson
30%
Draws
35%
Dunedin
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Dunedin carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Football Championship 2000 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Nelson Clean Sheet 19%
Dunedin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nelson Dunedin
Matches Played 18 32
Wins 6 11
Draws 6 4
Losses 6 17
Goals Scored 1.78 1.47
Goals Conceded 2.06 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.73 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 6, 2000 Football Championship
Dunedin vs Nelson
1:1
May 14, 2000 Football Championship
Nelson vs Dunedin
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nelson 32 / 100
Dunedin 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nelson Dunedin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nelson scored in 83% of their last 18 outings.

Dunedin let in goals in 84% of their last 32 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Nelson went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Dunedin
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 2.25
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nelson

(Home)
13 Aug
Nelson
3 : 3
Napier City
06 Aug
Dunedin
1 : 1
Nelson
23 Jul
Nelson
4 : 3
Metro
16 Jul
Waitakere City
2 : 2
Nelson
09 Jul
Nelson
0 : 2
Manawatu
Page 1 of 4

Dunedin

(Away)
09 Aug
Dunedin
1 : 2
Mangere United
11 Jul
Dunedin
6 : 1
Mosgiel
27 Jul
Dunedin
0 : 3
Cashmere Technical
28 Jun
Dunedin
1 : 0
Otago University
21 Jul
Miramar
5 : 1
Dunedin
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 University Wellington 18 11 4 3 35:22 37
2 Napier City 18 9 4 5 37:20 31
3 Dunedin 18 8 3 7 32:26 27
4 Manawatu 18 8 3 7 31:28 27
5 Waitakere City 18 7 3 8 37:34 24
6 Nelson 18 6 6 6 32:37 24
7 Central United 18 7 2 9 29:28 23
8 Miramar 18 6 5 7 28:33 23
9 Christchurch 18 4 6 8 23:35 18
10 Metro 18 5 2 11 23:44 17
Promotion - Football Championship 2000 (Play Out)
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