Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nepal vs Afghanistan

World World

Friendly International 2024 Republican central stadium, Dushanbe
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
42'
'

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2024 game between Nepal and Afghanistan finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nepal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Nepal
20%
Draws
64%
Afghanistan
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Afghanistan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Nepal come out ahead of Afghanistan on wins alone.
  • Nepal are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Nepal Clean Sheet 68%
Afghanistan Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nepal Afghanistan
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 5 4
Draws 7 8
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 0.66 0.54
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 16, 2024 Friendly International
Nepal vs Afghanistan
2:0
Sep 8, 2013 SAFF Championship
Nepal vs Afghanistan
0:1
Dec 9, 2011 SAFF Championship
Afghanistan vs Nepal
1:0
Apr 7, 2011 AFC Challenge Cup
Afghanistan vs Nepal
0:1
Dec 9, 2009 SAFF Championship
Afghanistan vs Nepal
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nepal Compare

Top Goalscorer Gillespye J. K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chand R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Afghanistan Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nepal 59 / 100
Afghanistan 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nepal Afghanistan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nepal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Afghanistan has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Afghanistan lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Nepal found the back of the net in 45% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Nepal VS Afghanistan
0.38 Goals Scored 0.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
25% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nepal

(Home)
31 Mar
Nepal
0 : 1
Laos
18 Nov
Nepal
0 : 1
Malaysia
13 Nov
Bangladesh
2 : 2
Nepal
14 Oct
Nepal
0 : 1
Vietnam
09 Oct
Vietnam
3 : 1
Nepal
Page 1 of 6

Afghanistan

(Away)
10 Jun
Pakistan
2 : 0
Afghanistan
07 Jun
Afghanistan
0 : 2
Pakistan
04 Jun
Afghanistan
0 : 0
Bangladesh U23
01 Jun
Maldives
0 : 1
Afghanistan
31 Mar
Syria
5 : 1
Afghanistan
Page 1 of 6