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Nepean vs Mounties Wanderers FC

Australia Australia

NSW League One 2023
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AI Match Summary

Nepean in this NSW League One 2023 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Nepean
20%
Draws
38%
Mounties Wanderers FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nepean

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mounties Wanderers FC lately — more wins on the board than Nepean.
  • Model gives Nepean a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Mounties Wanderers FC arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Mounties Wanderers FC, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Nepean Clean Sheet 20%
Mounties Wanderers FC Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nepean Mounties Wanderers FC
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 5 7
Draws 4 8
Losses 21 17
Goals Scored 0 0.75
Goals Conceded 0 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2024 NSW League One
Nepean vs Mounties Wanderers FC
0:1
Aug 31, 2024 NSW League One
Mounties Wanderers FC vs Nepean
0:0
Sep 9, 2023 NSW League One
Mounties Wanderers FC vs Nepean
0:0
Sep 1, 2023 NSW League One
Nepean vs Mounties Wanderers FC
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nepean 42 / 100
Mounties Wanderers FC 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nepean Mounties Wanderers FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mounties Wanderers FC let in goals in 81% of their last 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Nepean went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Mounties Wanderers FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Mounties Wanderers FC
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nepean

(Home)
06 Sept
Nepean
0 : 1
Mounties Wanderers FC
31 Aug
Mounties Wanderers FC
0 : 0
Nepean
24 Aug
Rydalmere Lions
0 : 1
Nepean
16 Aug
Nepean
1 : 1
Dunbar Rovers
11 Aug
Canterbury Bankstown FC
2 : 0
Nepean
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Mounties Wanderers FC

(Away)
30 Aug
Bulls Academy
3 : 3
Mounties Wanderers FC
23 Aug
Hills United
1 : 3
Mounties Wanderers FC
16 Aug
Mounties Wanderers FC
0 : 1
Blacktown Spartans
09 Aug
Inter Lions
3 : 2
Mounties Wanderers FC
02 Aug
SD Raiders
2 : 0
Mounties Wanderers FC
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Nepean3
Mounties Wanderers FC2