Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Neretva vs Jadran Luka Ploce

Croatia Croatia

3. HNL South
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The 3. HNL South game between Neretva and Jadran Luka Ploce finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jadran Luka Ploce.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Neretva
15%
Draws
45%
Jadran Luka Ploce
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jadran Luka Ploce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Jadran Luka Ploce carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Neretva a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Jadran Luka Ploce here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Neretva Clean Sheet 68%
Jadran Luka Ploce Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Neretva Jadran Luka Ploce
Matches Played 32 48
Wins 16 27
Draws 5 6
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.53 1.81
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.08
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 20, 2022 3. HNL South
Neretva vs Jadran Luka Ploce
0:1
Oct 23, 2021 3. HNL South
Jadran Luka Ploce vs Neretva
0:1
Mar 24, 2021 3. HNL South
Jadran Luka Ploce vs Neretva
6:1
Oct 14, 2020 3. HNL South
Neretva vs Jadran Luka Ploce
2:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neretva 50 / 100
Jadran Luka Ploce 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Neretva Jadran Luka Ploce

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Neretva Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.75 goals as a typical output.

Neretva found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: Jadran Luka Ploce conceded in 60% of 48 recent games.

Neretva has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Neretva VS Jadran Luka Ploce
5 Goals Scored 1.75
2 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 25%
100% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Neretva

(Home)
22 Aug
Neretva
5 : 2
Otocac
16 Sept
Neretva
1 : 2
Istra 1961
27 Aug
Neretva
6 : 2
Zadrugar Oprisavci
31 Aug
Neretva
0 : 2
Grobnican
28 May
Neretva
1 : 0
Kamen Podbablje
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Jadran Luka Ploce

(Away)
19 Sept
Vukovar 1991
2 : 3
Jadran Luka Ploce
12 Sept
Jadran Luka Ploce
1 : 0
Orijent
06 Sept
Bijelo Brdo
1 : 0
Jadran Luka Ploce
02 Sept
Jadran Luka Ploce
1 : 1
Dubrava Zagreb
29 Aug
Hrvace
1 : 4
Jadran Luka Ploce
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Jadran Luka Ploce 34 20 5 9 67:28 65
2 Hrvatski Vitez Posedarje 34 18 6 10 56:38 60
3 Hrvace 34 18 6 10 46:39 60
4 HNK Zadar 34 16 11 7 69:28 59
5 Neretva 34 16 7 11 50:36 55
6 RNK Split 34 15 7 12 52:40 52
7 NK Junak Sinj 34 16 4 14 49:46 52
8 Uskok Klis 34 15 6 13 51:54 51
9 Sloga Mravince 34 12 14 8 48:45 50
10 Primorac Biograd 34 14 6 14 60:56 48
11 Zagora 34 12 8 14 47:52 44
12 GOSK Dubrovnik 34 11 10 13 35:34 43
13 Zmaj Makarska 34 11 10 13 28:39 43
14 Neretvanac 34 10 8 16 40:53 38
15 Kamen Podbablje 34 9 10 15 37:51 37
16 Vodice 34 8 9 17 44:73 33
17 Urania Baska Voda 34 10 3 21 33:65 33
18 OSK Otok 34 6 8 20 48:83 26
Promotion - Prva NL 2022/2023 (Main)
Promotion - 3. HNL - Promotion Play Offs (Main)