Sport Picks
Nesebar vs Rozova Dolina
Bulgaria
Third League - South-East 2025/2026 Gradski stadion, Nesebar 
AI Match Summary
Nesebar in this Third League - South-East 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nesebar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
35%
32%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Nesebar have won more games recently than Rozova Dolina.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Nesebar taking it.
- Regular Third League - South-East 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Nesebar have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 19%
Rozova Dolina Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nesebar | Rozova Dolina |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 19 | 10 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 4 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 2.74 | 1.23 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.94 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 2, 2026 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Rozova Dolina
4:0
Oct 25, 2025 Third League - South-East
Rozova Dolina vs Nesebar
1:0
Mar 9, 2024 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Rozova Dolina
1:0
Aug 26, 2023 Third League - South-East
Rozova Dolina vs Nesebar
2:4
Mar 31, 2023 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Rozova Dolina
2:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nesebar 42 / 100
Rozova Dolina 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nesebar Rozova Dolina
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Nesebar scored in 84% of their last 31 outings.
Rozova Dolina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Recent resilience: Nesebar stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nesebar VS Rozova Dolina
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Nesebar
(Home) 20 Sept
Nesebar
4 : 3 Beroe
15 Sept
Gorna
1 : 1 Nesebar
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1 Rilski Sportist
02 Sept
Marek
1 : 0 Nesebar
29 Aug
Nesebar
1 : 1 Yantra Gabrovo
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20 Sept
Nesebar
4 : 3 Beroe
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1 Rilski Sportist
29 Aug
Nesebar
1 : 1 Yantra Gabrovo
23 Aug
Nesebar
7 : 0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
10 Aug
Nesebar
2 : 0 Dobrudzha
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Rozova Dolina
(Away) 19 Sept
Levski Karlovo
1 : 2 Rozova Dolina
12 Sept
Rozova Dolina
1 : 1 Rodopa Smolyan
05 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
2 : 0 Rozova Dolina
29 Aug
Rozova Dolina
2 : 0 Maritsa Plovdiv
22 Aug
Rozova Dolina
2 : 2 Gigant Saedinenie
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19 Sept
Levski Karlovo
1 : 2 Rozova Dolina
05 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
2 : 0 Rozova Dolina
15 Aug
OFC Haskovo
1 : 1 Rozova Dolina
08 Jul
Neftochimic Burgas
3 : 1 Rozova Dolina
23 May
Asenovets
4 : 2 Rozova Dolina
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nesebar | 36 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 116:22 | 91 |
| 2 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 90:40 | 75 |
| 3 | Neftochimic Burgas | 36 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 53:39 | 66 |
| 4 | Yambol 1915 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 72:41 | 66 |
| 5 | Levski Karlovo | 36 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 64:53 | 65 |
| 6 | Maritsa Milevo | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 64:32 | 60 |
| 7 | Spartak Plovdiv | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 64:58 | 54 |
| 8 | Sozopol | 36 | 16 | 6 | 14 | 50:38 | 54 |
| 9 | OFC Haskovo | 36 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 52:48 | 52 |
| 10 | Zagorets | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 52:60 | 49 |
| 11 | Rozova Dolina | 36 | 14 | 6 | 16 | 45:52 | 48 |
| 12 | Gigant Saedinenie | 36 | 14 | 5 | 17 | 56:59 | 47 |
| 13 | Rodopa Smolyan | 36 | 14 | 4 | 18 | 51:70 | 46 |
| 14 | Atletik Kuklen | 36 | 13 | 3 | 20 | 43:78 | 42 |
| 15 | Sekirovo Rakovski | 36 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 30:53 | 35 |
| 16 | Dimitrovgrad | 36 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 42:82 | 35 |
| 17 | Lok. Plovdiv II | 36 | 9 | 6 | 21 | 44:53 | 33 |
| 18 | Rakovski 2011 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 25 | 46:94 | 27 |
| 19 | Asenovets | 36 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 30:92 | 23 |
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