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World Championship 2026 Johan Cruijff Arena

Lithuania

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Netherlands play Lithuania in the World Championship 2026. Netherlands are favorites here. Recently, Netherlands averaged 2.37 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Lithuania averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Netherlands won 2, Lithuania won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 17, 2025 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.06 for Netherlands and 0.81 for Lithuania. This points to a Netherlands double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%

Netherlands

24%

Draws

19%

Lithuania

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Netherlands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence

Netherlands picked up more points recently compared to Lithuania.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 0.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 80%

Over 2.5 Goals 58%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

Netherlands Clean Sheet 26%

Lithuania Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 72%

Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Netherlands	Lithuania
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	15	6
Draws	9	5
Losses	6	17
Goals Scored	2.37	0.82
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	2.38	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 17, 2025 World Championship

Netherlands vs Lithuania

Possession: 54% - 57% Cards: 2 - 0

4:0

Sep 7, 2025 World Championship

Lithuania vs Netherlands

Possession: 53% - 52% Cards: 0 - 2

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Netherlands Compare

Top Goalscorer Reijnders T.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Simons X.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.83

Avg xA / game 1.19

Lithuania Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Netherlands 57 / 100

Lithuania 19 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Netherlands Lithuania

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Netherlands Win (1)

Secondary Pick Netherlands & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +16.3%

2.04

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.4%

1.92

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Netherlands attacking → ← attacking Lithuania

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Netherlands scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Lithuania let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Netherlands went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Lithuania lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

54 Points in last 5 23

2.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	2	6:8	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	3	7:6	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	6	1:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scotland	6	4	1	1	13:7	13
2	Denmark	6	3	2	1	16:7	11
3	Greece	6	2	1	3	10:12	7
4	Belarus	6	0	2	4	4:17	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	6	5	1	0	16:4	16
2	Ukraine	6	3	1	2	10:11	10
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	13:11	7
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	6	5	1	0	21:2	16
2	Turkey	6	4	1	1	17:12	13
3	Georgia	6	1	0	5	7:15	3
4	Bulgaria	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	6	4	1	1	20:7	13
2	Ireland	6	3	1	2	9:7	10
3	Hungary	6	2	2	2	11:10	8
4	Armenia	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	8	6	2	0	27:4	20
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14:7	17
3	Finland	8	3	1	4	8:14	10
4	Malta	8	1	2	5	4:19	5
5	Lithuania	8	0	3	5	6:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria	8	6	1	1	22:4	19
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	5	2	1	17:7	17
3	Romania	8	4	1	3	19:10	13
4	Cyprus	8	2	2	4	11:11	8
5	San Marino	8	0	0	8	2:39	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	8	8	0	0	37:5	24
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21:12	18
3	Israel	8	4	0	4	19:20	12
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8:21	4
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5:32	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	8	5	3	0	29:7	18
2	Wales	8	5	1	2	21:11	16
3	North Macedonia	8	3	4	1	13:10	13
4	Kazakhstan	8	2	2	4	9:13	8
5	Liechtenstein	8	0	0	8	0:31	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	8	8	0	0	22:0	24
2	Albania	8	4	2	2	7:5	14
3	Serbia	8	4	1	3	9:10	13
4	Latvia	8	1	2	5	5:15	5
5	Andorra	8	0	1	7	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia	8	7	1	0	26:4	22
2	Czech Republic	8	5	1	2	18:8	16
3	Faroe Islands	8	4	0	4	11:9	12
4	Montenegro	8	3	0	5	8:17	9
5	Gibraltar	8	0	0	8	3:28	0