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Netherlands vs Spain

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 De Kuip, Rotterdam
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Williams N.
Assist: Pedri
28' Event
Gakpo C.
Assist: Kluivert J.
41'
Sub
Cubarsi P. In: Huijsen D.
Out: Cubarsi P.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 tie, finishing 2-2. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Netherlands
15%
Draws
51%
Spain
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spain

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Spain have won more games recently than Netherlands.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Spain arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Netherlands Clean Sheet 15%
Spain Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Netherlands Spain
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 22
Draws 9 6
Losses 6 1
Goals Scored 2.37 2.41
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Spain vs Netherlands
4:3
Mar 20, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Netherlands vs Spain
2:2
Nov 11, 2020 Friendly International
Netherlands vs Spain
1:1
Mar 29, 2020 Friendly International
Netherlands vs Spain
0:0
Mar 27, 2018 Friendly International
Spain vs Netherlands
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Netherlands Compare

Top Goalscorer Gakpo C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Reijnders T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Spain Compare

Top Goalscorer Williams N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Merino M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Netherlands 31 / 100
Spain 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Netherlands Spain

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spain Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Netherlands's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Netherlands went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Spain conceded in 41% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Netherlands VS Spain
2 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Netherlands

(Home)
30 Jun
Netherlands
1 : 2
Morocco
25 Jun
Tunisia
1 : 3
Netherlands
20 Jun
Netherlands
5 : 1
Sweden
14 Jun
Netherlands
2 : 2
Japan
08 Jun
Netherlands
2 : 1
Uzbekistan
Page 1 of 6

Spain

(Away)
19 Jul
Spain
1 : 0
Argentina
14 Jul
France
0 : 2
Spain
10 Jul
Spain
2 : 1
Belgium
06 Jul
Portugal
0 : 1
Spain
02 Jul
Spain
3 : 0
Austria
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Italy 4
Germany 5
Denmark 3
Portugal 5
Netherlands 5
Spain 6
Croatia 2
France 3
Semi-finals
Germany 1
Portugal 2
Spain 5
France 4
Final
Portugal 3
Spain 2
Germany 0
France 2