Sport Picks

Stadium Background

New Caledonia U17 vs Samoa U17

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Championship U17 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Angexetine J.
45' Event
Alebate N.
(Penalty)
52'
Gohoupe B.

AI Match Summary

New Caledonia U17 in this OFC Championship U17 2023 tie, finishing 4-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
New Caledonia U17
15%
Draws
64%
Samoa U17
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samoa U17

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • New Caledonia U17 have won more games recently than Samoa U17.
  • Samoa U17 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • New Caledonia U17 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor New Caledonia U17, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 86%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 90%
Over 2.5 Goals 86%
Over 3.5 Goals 74%
Over 4.5 Goals 33%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
New Caledonia U17 Clean Sheet 10%
Samoa U17 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Caledonia U17 Samoa U17
Matches Played 33 14
Wins 14 3
Draws 3 1
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 2.42 1.36
Goals Conceded 3.15 4.36
Expected Goals (xG) 3.02 2.17
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2023 OFC Championship U16
New Caledonia U17 vs Samoa U17
4:0
Jan 13, 2015 OFC Championship U16
Samoa U17 vs New Caledonia U17
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New Caledonia U17 Compare

Top Goalscorer Angexetine J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Saiko J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.32
Avg xA / game 1.51

Samoa U17 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.97
Avg xA / game 1.21

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Caledonia U17 10 / 100
Samoa U17 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Caledonia U17 Samoa U17

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samoa U17 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Samoa U17 conceded in 93% of 14 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

New Caledonia U17 found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (33 games).

Away concern: Samoa U17 has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

New Caledonia U17 VS Samoa U17
2.25 Goals Scored 1.2
3.13 Goals Conceded 3.8
100% Over 1.5 80%
88% Over 2.5 80%
88% Over 3.5 60%

Recent Form & Match History

New Caledonia U17

(Home)
09 Nov
Morocco U17
16 : 0
New Caledonia U17
06 Nov
Japan U17
0 : 0
New Caledonia U17
03 Nov
New Caledonia U17
1 : 6
Portugal U17
17 Nov
Iran U17
5 : 0
New Caledonia U17
14 Nov
Brazil U17
9 : 0
New Caledonia U17
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Samoa U17

(Away)
21 Jan
New Caledonia U17
4 : 0
Samoa U17
15 Jan
Tonga U17
0 : 6
Samoa U17
12 Jan
Fiji U17
3 : 0
Samoa U17
19 Feb
Solomon Islands U17
12 : 0
Samoa U17
16 Feb
Fiji U17
3 : 0
Samoa U17
Page 1 of 3

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
New Caledonia U17 4
Samoa U17 0
Tahiti U17 5
Tonga U17 0
Fiji U17 3
Cook Islands U17 0
New Zealand U17 1
Vanuatu U17 0
Semi-finals
New Caledonia U17 2
Tahiti U17 1
Fiji U17 1
New Zealand U17 4
Final
New Caledonia U17 0
New Zealand U17 1
Tahiti U17 3
Fiji U17 0