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New Caledonia U17 vs Tahiti U17

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Championship U17 2023
Wed, Jan 25, 2023
2 - 1
04:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

New Caledonia U17 play Tahiti U17 in the OFC Championship U17 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, New Caledonia U17 averaged 2.53 goals scored and 3.18 conceded. Tahiti U17 averaged 3.53 goals scored and 0.74 conceded. In past meetings, New Caledonia U17 won 1, Tahiti U17 won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 25, 2023 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.43 for New Caledonia U17 and 3.26 for Tahiti U17. This points to a Tahiti U17 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
New Caledonia U17
15%
Draws
54%
Tahiti U17
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tahiti U17

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • New Caledonia U17 picked up more points recently compared to Tahiti U17.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.43 vs 3.26 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 91%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 49%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
New Caledonia U17 Clean Sheet 10%
Tahiti U17 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 82%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Caledonia U17 Tahiti U17
Matches Played 34 19
Wins 14 14
Draws 3 1
Losses 17 4
Goals Scored 2.53 3.53
Goals Conceded 3.18 0.74
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 3.40
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.13 0.60

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2023 OFC Championship U16
New Caledonia U17 vs Tahiti U17
2:1
Feb 15, 2017 OFC Championship U16
Tahiti U17 vs New Caledonia U17
1:1
Jan 25, 2015 OFC Championship U16
Tahiti U17 vs New Caledonia U17
3:2
Jan 15, 2011 OFC Championship U16
Tahiti U17 vs New Caledonia U17
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New Caledonia U17 Compare

Top Goalscorer Alebate N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Tahiti U17 Compare

Top Goalscorer Guillemant T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 3.09
Avg xA / game 1.89

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Caledonia U17 30 / 100
Tahiti U17 51 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Caledonia U17 Tahiti U17

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tahiti U17 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Tahiti U17 & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +7.7%
1.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

New Caledonia U17 attacking → ← attacking Tahiti U17

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New Caledonia U17 scored in 71% of their last 34 games.

Tahiti U17 let in goals in 47% of their last 19 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

New Caledonia U17 went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Tahiti U17 lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 43
2.25 Goals expected (xG) 3.40
3.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.60