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New Caledonia vs New Zealand

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World Championship 2026 Eden Park
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
McCowatt C. In: Just E.
Out: McCowatt C.
46'
Sub
Garbett M. In: De Vries F.
Out: Garbett M.
51'
Sub
Zeoula C. In: Waia G.
Out: Zeoula C.

AI Match Summary

New Zealand in this World Championship 2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored New Zealand.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
New Caledonia
6%
Draws
4%
New Zealand
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: New Caledonia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • New Zealand average 1 goals a game right now, well clear of New Caledonia's 0.4.
  • Model gives New Caledonia a 90% chance of winning this.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this World Championship 2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
New Caledonia Clean Sheet 20%
New Zealand Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Caledonia New Zealand
Matches Played 22 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 1 3
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 0.4 1
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.40 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.80 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2025 World Championship
New Caledonia vs New Zealand
0:3
Jun 15, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
New Zealand vs New Caledonia
0:0
Mar 24, 2022 World Championship
New Zealand vs New Caledonia
7:1
Nov 15, 2016 World Championship
New Caledonia vs New Zealand
0:0
Nov 12, 2016 World Championship
New Zealand vs New Caledonia
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New Caledonia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.31
Avg xA / game 0.2

New Zealand Compare

Top Goalscorer Boxall M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barbarouses K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Caledonia 85 / 100
New Zealand 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Caledonia New Zealand

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New Caledonia scored in 82% of their last 22 games.

New Zealand has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: New Caledonia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

New Caledonia VS New Zealand
0.4 Goals Scored 1
0.8 Goals Conceded 1.25
40% Over 1.5 63%
20% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
New Caledonia3
Tahiti0
New Zealand7
Fiji0
Final
New Caledonia0
New Zealand3