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New Mexico vs Oakland Roots

USA USA

USL Championship Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

New Mexico play Oakland Roots in the USL Championship. It looks like a close match. Recently, New Mexico averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Oakland Roots averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.59 conceded. In past meetings, New Mexico won 2, Oakland Roots won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 5, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for New Mexico and 1.13 for Oakland Roots. This points to a New Mexico double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
New Mexico
28%
Draws
31%
Oakland Roots
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: New Mexico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • New Mexico picked up more points recently compared to Oakland Roots.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%
New Mexico Clean Sheet 21%
Oakland Roots Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Mexico Oakland Roots
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 14 8
Draws 7 11
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.5 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 USL Championship
New Mexico vs Oakland Roots
2:1
Mar 15, 2026 USL Championship
Oakland Roots vs New Mexico
2:1
Oct 19, 2025 USL Championship
New Mexico vs Oakland Roots
3:3
May 25, 2025 USL Championship
Oakland Roots vs New Mexico
0:3
Aug 31, 2024 USL Championship
Oakland Roots vs New Mexico
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New Mexico Compare

Top Goalscorer Nava C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bailey Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Oakland Roots Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Mexico 41 / 100
Oakland Roots 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Mexico Oakland Roots

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: New Mexico or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

New Mexico attacking → ← attacking Oakland Roots

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New Mexico scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Oakland Roots let in goals in 81% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

New Mexico went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Oakland Roots lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 35
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tampa Bay1594224:1231
2Charleston1582530:2126
3Detroit City1473421:1424
4Louisville City1573525:2224
5Indy Eleven1263318:1221
6Pittsburgh Riverhounds1362515:1520
7Hartford Athletic1346310:1118
8Miami FC1445517:2317
9Rhode Island1244422:1616
10Birmingham Legion1427515:1813
11Brooklyn FC1433815:2412
12Loudoun United1418517:2811
13Sporting Jax15041119:414
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Orange County SC1576223:1627
2San Antonio FC1567220:1725
3New Mexico1363415:1421
4Oakland Roots1556424:2221
5Colorado Springs1454524:2219
6El Paso Locomotive1454525:2419
7FC Tulsa1354417:1619
8Lexington1353521:1618
9Phoenix Rising1545620:2217
10Sacramento Republic1244413:1216
11Las Vegas Lights1443721:2515
12Monterey Bay1543814:2215