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New York City vs New York Red Bulls - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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MLS Yankee Stadium, New York, NY
New York City Logo

New York City

0 - 1
FT
New York Red Bulls Logo

New York Red Bulls

Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Mehmeti A.
22'
Cowell C.
30'
Cavallo N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The MLS game between New York City and New York Red Bulls finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward New York Red Bulls.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
New York City
30%
Draws
41%
New York Red Bulls
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: New York Red Bulls

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • New York City's 1.44 goals per match outpaces what New York Red Bulls have produced (1.3).
  • 29% — that's where the model lands on New York City taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
New York City Clean Sheet 20%
New York Red Bulls Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New York City New York Red Bulls
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 8 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.44 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.37 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 MLS
New York City vs New York Red Bulls
0:1
May 16, 2026 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs New York City
1:1
Apr 29, 2026 US Open Cup
New York Red Bulls vs New York City
1:3
Sep 27, 2025 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs New York City
2:3
May 17, 2025 MLS
New York City vs New York Red Bulls
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New York City Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

New York Red Bulls Compare

Top Goalscorer Hall J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New York City 40 / 100
New York Red Bulls 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New York City New York Red Bulls

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick New York City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New York Red Bulls's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 27 matches.

New York City's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: New York City remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

New York City VS New York Red Bulls
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

New York City

(Home)
26 Sept
Atlanta United
2 : 2
New York City
18 Sept
New York City
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
13 Sept
Real Salt Lake
0 : 2
New York City
10 Sept
New York City
1 : 2
New England Revolution
04 Sept
New York City
0 : 0
Nashville SC
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New York Red Bulls

(Away)
30 Sept
New York Red Bulls
0 : 3
St. Louis City
18 Sept
New York City
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
12 Sept
Columbus Crew
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
10 Sept
Los Angeles FC
2 : 0
New York Red Bulls
06 Sept
Seattle Sounders
0 : 0
New York Red Bulls
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 28 15 6 7 61:30 51
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 28 13 8 7 52:45 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
5 Houston Dynamo 28 13 6 9 36:34 45
6 Los Angeles FC 29 11 9 9 44:31 42
7 Seattle Sounders 28 11 8 9 38:35 41
8 Colorado Rapids 28 11 4 13 39:39 37
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 28 9 6 13 51:54 33
11 Real Salt Lake 28 9 5 14 41:46 32
12 San Diego FC 28 8 8 12 48:51 32
13 Austin FC 28 7 10 11 36:51 31
14 Minnesota United 28 7 9 12 42:51 30
15 Sporting Kansas City 28 6 4 18 35:68 22
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 28 19 6 3 59:22 63
2 Inter Miami 28 13 10 5 68:50 49
3 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
4 New England Revolution 28 14 4 10 45:39 46
5 Charlotte FC 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
6 Philadelphia Union 28 12 6 10 56:45 42
7 Orlando City 28 11 4 13 51:66 37
8 New York Red Bulls 28 10 6 12 38:52 36
9 FC Cincinnati 27 9 9 9 58:65 36
10 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 27 6 12 9 34:46 30
13 Columbus Crew 28 8 5 15 41:46 29
14 Atlanta United 28 7 6 15 33:48 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)