Sport Picks
New York City vs Toronto FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
MLS Yankee Stadium, New York, NY 
Match Events
6'
6'
Laryea R.
8'
8'
Mercau N.
(Penalty)
11'
11'
Magno T.
AI Match Summary
The MLS game between New York City and Toronto FC finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Toronto FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
34%
/ Low Confidence
- New York City carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives New York City a 34% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
New York City Clean Sheet 17%
Toronto FC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | New York City | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 8 | 7 |
| Draws | 7 | 11 |
| Losses | 13 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.39 | 1.86 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 29, 2026 MLS
Toronto FC vs New York City
1:1
Jul 31, 2026 MLS
New York City vs Toronto FC
1:1
Jul 3, 2025 MLS
New York City vs Toronto FC
3:1
Apr 26, 2025 MLS
Toronto FC vs New York City
0:1
May 11, 2024 MLS
Toronto FC vs New York City
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
New York City Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Toronto FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Mihailovic D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
New York City 75 / 100
Toronto FC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
New York City Toronto FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick New York City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Toronto FC conceded in 89% of 28 recent games.
New York City's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Toronto FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
New York City VS Toronto FC
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
New York City
(Home) 10 Oct
Chicago Fire
2 : 1 New York City
26 Sept
Atlanta United
2 : 2 New York City
18 Sept
New York City
0 : 1 New York Red Bulls
13 Sept
Real Salt Lake
0 : 2 New York City
10 Sept
New York City
1 : 2 New England Revolution
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18 Sept
New York City
0 : 1 New York Red Bulls
10 Sept
New York City
1 : 2 New England Revolution
04 Sept
New York City
0 : 0 Nashville SC
16 Aug
New York City
2 : 3 Philadelphia Union
13 Aug
New York City
1 : 2 Necaxa
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Toronto FC
(Away) 10 Oct
Toronto FC
2 : 1 CF Montreal
27 Sept
Nashville SC
2 : 0 Toronto FC
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1 Toronto FC
12 Sept
Orlando City
3 : 0 Toronto FC
09 Sept
Toronto FC
2 : 1 Nashville SC
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27 Sept
Nashville SC
2 : 0 Toronto FC
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1 Toronto FC
12 Sept
Orlando City
3 : 0 Toronto FC
22 Aug
Inter Miami
1 : 2 Toronto FC
31 Jul
New York City
1 : 1 Toronto FC
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 60:29 | 50 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 48:36 | 47 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 50:42 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 34:32 | 44 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43:30 | 41 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 35:35 | 38 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 38:38 | 36 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 37:44 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 48:51 | 32 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 40:44 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35:47 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 40:49 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 32:65 | 21 |
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 55:21 | 60 |
| 2 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 51:40 | 48 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 45:36 | 46 |
| 4 | Inter Miami | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 64:50 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte FC | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 47:38 | 43 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 54:44 | 39 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 27 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 48:64 | 34 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 34:51 | 33 |
| 9 | New York City | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 42:38 | 33 |
| 10 | FC Cincinnati | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 55:64 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 41:52 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 34:42 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 39:43 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32:45 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 35:56 | 24 |
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
