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New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ
New York Red Bulls Logo

New York Red Bulls

3 - 2
FT
Orlando City Logo

Orlando City

Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Jimenez M.
Assist: Berggren G.
27'
Nealis D.
43' Event
Forsberg E.
Assist: Cowell C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The MLS game between New York Red Bulls and Orlando City finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward New York Red Bulls.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
New York Red Bulls
15%
Draws
39%
Orlando City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: New York Red Bulls

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Orlando City come out ahead of New York Red Bulls on wins alone.
  • New York Red Bulls are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
New York Red Bulls Clean Sheet 15%
Orlando City Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New York Red Bulls Orlando City
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 8 14
Draws 6 3
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.3 2.15
Goals Conceded 2 1.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City
3:2
Feb 22, 2026 MLS
Orlando City vs New York Red Bulls
1:2
Apr 12, 2025 MLS
Orlando City vs New York Red Bulls
0:0
Mar 15, 2025 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City
2:2
Dec 1, 2024 MLS
Orlando City vs New York Red Bulls
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New York Red Bulls Compare

Top Goalscorer Jimenez M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Forsberg E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Orlando City Compare

Top Goalscorer Spicer T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dorsey G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New York Red Bulls 57 / 100
Orlando City 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New York Red Bulls Orlando City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick New York Red Bulls Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Orlando City conceded in 81% of 27 recent games.

New York Red Bulls's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: New York Red Bulls stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

New York Red Bulls VS Orlando City
0.38 Goals Scored 2.13
1 Goals Conceded 2
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

New York Red Bulls

(Home)
30 Sept
New York Red Bulls
0 : 3
St. Louis City
18 Sept
New York City
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
12 Sept
Columbus Crew
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
10 Sept
Los Angeles FC
2 : 0
New York Red Bulls
06 Sept
Seattle Sounders
0 : 0
New York Red Bulls
Page 1 of 6

Orlando City

(Away)
26 Sept
Philadelphia Union
4 : 2
Orlando City
19 Sept
New England Revolution
4 : 2
Orlando City
16 Sept
Columbus Crew
2 : 1
Orlando City
12 Sept
Orlando City
3 : 0
Toronto FC
09 Sept
Atlanta United
2 : 3
Orlando City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 27 15 5 7 60:29 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 35:35 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 32:65 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
3 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
4 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
5 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 27 9 6 12 34:51 33
9 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
13 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)