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New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union

USA USA

MLS Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ
New York Red Bulls Logo

New York Red Bulls

1 - 3
FT
Philadelphia Union Logo

Philadelphia Union

Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Iloski M.
Assist: Vassilev I.
46'
Sub
Ruvalcaba J. In: Choupo-Moting E. M.
Out: Ruvalcaba J.
50' Event
Sullivan C.
Assist: Jean Jacques D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Philadelphia Union in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Philadelphia Union.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
New York Red Bulls
15%
Draws
58%
Philadelphia Union
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Philadelphia Union

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • New York Red Bulls haven't matched Philadelphia Union's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Philadelphia Union a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Philadelphia Union have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
New York Red Bulls Clean Sheet 16%
Philadelphia Union Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New York Red Bulls Philadelphia Union
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.38 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union
1:3
Jul 22, 2026 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls
3:1
Aug 16, 2025 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union
1:0
Aug 13, 2025 US Open Cup
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls
3:2
Jul 12, 2025 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New York Red Bulls Compare

Top Goalscorer Choupo-Moting E. M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Philadelphia Union Compare

Top Goalscorer Iloski M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sullivan C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New York Red Bulls 23 / 100
Philadelphia Union 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New York Red Bulls Philadelphia Union

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Philadelphia Union Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Philadelphia Union's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

New York Red Bulls found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Recent resilience: New York Red Bulls stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

New York Red Bulls VS Philadelphia Union
0.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

New York Red Bulls

(Home)
18 Sept
New York City
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
12 Sept
Columbus Crew
0 : 1
New York Red Bulls
10 Sept
Los Angeles FC
2 : 0
New York Red Bulls
06 Sept
Seattle Sounders
0 : 0
New York Red Bulls
29 Aug
New York Red Bulls
1 : 3
Philadelphia Union
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Philadelphia Union

(Away)
26 Sept
Philadelphia Union
4 : 2
Orlando City
20 Sept
Sporting Kansas City
3 : 4
Philadelphia Union
14 Sept
San Diego FC
0 : 5
Philadelphia Union
09 Sept
Philadelphia Union
5 : 0
FC Cincinnati
05 Sept
Philadelphia Union
2 : 0
CF Montreal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 15 5 6 59:26 50
2 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
3 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
4 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
5 St. Louis City 26 12 8 6 45:36 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
8 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
9 Seattle Sounders 26 9 8 9 33:34 35
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 26 6 3 17 31:63 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
3 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
4 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
5 Chicago Fire 26 12 6 8 46:38 42
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 26 9 6 11 34:48 33
9 New York City 27 8 9 10 41:36 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
12 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
13 Toronto FC 27 6 11 10 39:51 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 27 6 6 15 34:54 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)