Sport Picks

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA

MLS Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ

Toronto FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

New York Red Bulls host Toronto FC in the MLS. Little to choose between these two on current form. Toronto FC have shipped 1.89 goals a game lately, while New York Red Bulls have conceded 2 and scored 1.3. Past meetings favor New York Red Bulls slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 14, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.38 - 1.38) back New York Red Bulls to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%

New York Red Bulls

20%

Draws

29%

Toronto FC

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: New York Red Bulls

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence

Toronto FC haven't matched New York Red Bulls's recent run of results.
Win probability leans New York Red Bulls's way, sitting at 80%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%

New York Red Bulls Clean Sheet 17%

Toronto FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	New York Red Bulls	Toronto FC
Matches Played	27	27
Wins	8	6
Draws	6	11
Losses	13	10
Goals Scored	1.3	1.41
Goals Conceded	2	1.89
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 MLS

Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls

1:1

Jun 25, 2025 MLS

Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls

1:1

Mar 22, 2025 MLS

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC

2:1

Oct 2, 2024 MLS

Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls

1:4

Jul 28, 2024 Leagues Cup

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC

0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New York Red Bulls 75 / 100

Toronto FC 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

New York Red Bulls Toronto FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick New York Red Bulls Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Toronto FC conceded in 89% of 27 recent games.

New York Red Bulls found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (27 games).

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: New York Red Bulls stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

New York Red Bulls VS Toronto FC

0.5 Goals Scored 1.63

1.13 Goals Conceded 2.25

50% Over 1.5 100%

25% Over 2.5 75%

13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History