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New Zealand W vs Tonga W

World World

Olympic Games Women 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Jale G.
13' Event
Green A.
(Penalty)
16' Event
Jale G.

AI Match Summary

New Zealand W in this Olympic Games Women 2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored New Zealand W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
New Zealand W
6%
Draws
4%
Tonga W
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: New Zealand W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • New Zealand W have won more games recently than Tonga W.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on New Zealand W taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • New Zealand W have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 41.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.2%
New Zealand W Clean Sheet 13%
Tonga W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Zealand W Tonga W
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 8
Draws 4 2
Losses 12 20
Goals Scored 1.38 0.83
Goals Conceded 2.5 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2024 Olympic Games Women
New Zealand W vs Tonga W
3:0
Nov 19, 2018 OFC Nations Cup Women
New Zealand W vs Tonga W
11:0
Oct 25, 2014 OFC Nations Cup Women
New Zealand W vs Tonga W
16:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New Zealand W Compare

Top Goalscorer Jale G.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Tonga W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.46

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Zealand W 84 / 100
Tonga W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Zealand W Tonga W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ZEA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tonga W has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 10.00 goals as a typical output.

New Zealand W found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).

New Zealand W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

New Zealand W VS Tonga W
1.38 Goals Scored 0.83
2.5 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 83%
63% Over 2.5 83%
50% Over 3.5 33%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Solomon Islands W321011:37
2Fiji W320115:66
3Papua New Guinea W311113:54
4American Samoa W30031:260
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1New Zealand W330014:09
2Samoa W32013:66
3Tonga W31022:63
4Vanuatu W30031:80