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Newcastle Jets vs Sydney FC

Australia Australia

A-League McDonald Jones Stadium
Sat, May 16, 2026
1 - 2
09:40 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Newcastle Jets play Sydney FC in the A-League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Newcastle Jets averaged 2.13 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Sydney FC averaged 1.23 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, Newcastle Jets won 2, Sydney FC won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Newcastle Jets and 1.13 for Sydney FC. This points to a Newcastle Jets double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Newcastle Jets
19%
Draws
36%
Sydney FC
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Newcastle Jets

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Newcastle Jets picked up more points recently compared to Sydney FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Newcastle Jets Clean Sheet 21%
Sydney FC Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newcastle Jets Sydney FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 13
Draws 4 7
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 2.13 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Sydney FC
1:2
May 9, 2026 A-League
Sydney FC vs Newcastle Jets
1:1
Mar 22, 2026 A-League
Sydney FC vs Newcastle Jets
1:2
Dec 20, 2025 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Sydney FC
2:0
Nov 1, 2025 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Sydney FC
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newcastle Jets Compare

Top Goalscorer Adams E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sydney FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Quispe Cordova P. A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newcastle Jets 45 / 100
Sydney FC 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newcastle Jets Sydney FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Newcastle Jets or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Newcastle Jets attacking → ← attacking Sydney FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newcastle Jets scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Sydney FC let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Newcastle Jets went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Sydney FC lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 46
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88