Sport Picks
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
Australia
A-League 2025/2026 McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle 
Match Events
1'
1'
Bayliss L.
56'
56'
Taylor C.
Assist: Wilmering D.
70'
70'
Adams E.
Assist: Bayliss L.
AI Match Summary
Newcastle Jets in this A-League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Newcastle Jets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
15%
59%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wellington Phoenix
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Newcastle Jets lately — more wins on the board than Wellington Phoenix.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Newcastle Jets Clean Sheet 20%
Wellington Phoenix Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Newcastle Jets | Wellington Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 12 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 11 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 1.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.73 | 1.77 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 23, 2026 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
4:1
Dec 14, 2025 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets
1:3
Apr 6, 2025 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
1:2
Dec 28, 2024 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets
2:1
Apr 19, 2024 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Newcastle Jets Compare
Top Goalscorer Bayliss L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Taylor C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Wellington Phoenix Compare
Top Goalscorer Kartum S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Newcastle Jets 36 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Newcastle Jets Wellington Phoenix
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Wellington Phoenix Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Newcastle Jets's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Wellington Phoenix let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Newcastle Jets went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Newcastle Jets VS Wellington Phoenix
1.75 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Newcastle Jets
(Home) 15 Sept
Kashima Antlers
7 : 1 Newcastle Jets
21 Jul
Preston Lions
3 : 2 Newcastle Jets
16 May
Newcastle Jets
1 : 2 Sydney FC
09 May
Sydney FC
1 : 1 Newcastle Jets
25 Apr
Newcastle Jets
4 : 0 Central Coast
Page 1 of 6
16 May
Newcastle Jets
1 : 2 Sydney FC
25 Apr
Newcastle Jets
4 : 0 Central Coast
11 Apr
Newcastle Jets
1 : 1 Adelaide Utd
14 Mar
Newcastle Jets
1 : 2 Auckland FC
07 Mar
Newcastle Jets
2 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
Page 1 of 3
Wellington Phoenix
(Away) 24 Apr
Macarthur FC
4 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
18 Apr
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
05 Apr
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Wellington Phoenix
21 Mar
Brisbane Roar
1 : 2 Wellington Phoenix
Page 1 of 6
24 Apr
Macarthur FC
4 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
05 Apr
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Wellington Phoenix
21 Mar
Brisbane Roar
1 : 2 Wellington Phoenix
06 Mar
Adelaide Utd
1 : 1 Wellington Phoenix
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide Utd | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland FC | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 42 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 40 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | 34 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | 26 |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | 21 |
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
