Sport Picks

England

FA Cup 2025/2026 St. James' Park, Newcastle

Newcastle Utd

Sat, Jan 10, 2026

4 - 3

03:00 PM

Bournemouth

Our Tip

Match Events

28'

Sub

Unal E. In: Evanilson

Out: Unal E.

50'

Barnes H.

Assist: Woltemade N.

59'

Sub

Livramento V. In: Hall L.

Out: Livramento V.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Newcastle Utd in this FA Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 4-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

Newcastle Utd

30%

Draws

31%

Bournemouth

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Newcastle Utd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence

Bournemouth average 2.03 goals a game right now, well clear of Newcastle Utd's 1.61.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
Historical meetings favor Bournemouth, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 100%

Over 2.5 Goals 82%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.8%

Newcastle Utd Clean Sheet 10%

Bournemouth Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Newcastle Utd	Bournemouth
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	12	12
Draws	5	14
Losses	14	4
Goals Scored	1.61	2.03
Goals Conceded	1.87	1.17
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Premier League

Newcastle Utd vs Bournemouth

2:2

Apr 18, 2026 Premier League

Newcastle Utd vs Bournemouth

1:2

Jan 10, 2026 FA Cup

Newcastle Utd vs Bournemouth

4:3

Sep 21, 2025 Premier League

Bournemouth vs Newcastle Utd

0:0

Jan 18, 2025 Premier League

Newcastle Utd vs Bournemouth

1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newcastle Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Barnes H.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Bournemouth Compare

Top Goalscorer Scott A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Brooks D.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.1

Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newcastle Utd 30 / 100

Bournemouth 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Newcastle Utd Bournemouth

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newcastle Utd's goal record stands at 94% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Bournemouth conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Newcastle Utd has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Newcastle Utd VS Bournemouth

1.75 Goals Scored 2.88

1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5

100% Over 1.5 100%

88% Over 2.5 88%

50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Newcastle Utd

(Home)

19 Sept

Newcastle Utd

2 : 1

Hull City

14 Sept

Leeds

4 : 1

Newcastle Utd

08 Sept

Millwall

0 : 1

Newcastle Utd

05 Sept

Newcastle Utd

2 : 2

Bournemouth

29 Aug

Tottenham

0 : 2

Newcastle Utd

Page 1 of 7

Bournemouth

(Away)

20 Sept

Bournemouth

0 : 1

Liverpool

17 Sept

Real Sociedad

1 : 2

Bournemouth

12 Sept

Bournemouth

2 : 2

Brentford

08 Sept

Bournemouth

4 : 0

Lincoln City

05 Sept

Newcastle Utd

2 : 2

Bournemouth

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Wrexham -

TBD -

Nottingham -

Ipswich -

TBD -

Blackpool 1

Scunthorpe 0

Reading 2

Carlisle 3

Hull City -

TBD -

Blackburn -

Charlton -

TBD -

Chelsea -

Port Vale 5

Maldon & Tiptree 1

Bromley 1

Bristol Rovers 2

Fleetwood Town 2

Barnet 1

Luton 4

Forest Green 3

Bristol City -

TBD -

Watford -

Colchester 2

Milton Keynes Dons 3

Oldham 3

Northampton 1

TBD -

Oxford Utd -

Everton -

TBD -

Sunderland -

Boreham Wood 3

Crawley Town 0

Newport 3

Gillingham 2

Brackley 3

Notts County 2

Burton 6

St. Albans 0

West Ham -

TBD -

QPR -

Slough Town 2

Altrincham 1

Macclesfield 6

AFC Totton 3

TBD -

Crystal Palace -

Sheffield Wed -

TBD -

Brentford -

Tranmere 1

Stockport County 3

Cambridge Utd 3

Chester 0

TBD -

Birmingham -

Derby -

TBD -

Leeds -

Norwich -

TBD -

AFC Wimbledon 0

Gateshead 2

Eastleigh 0

Walsall 3

Swansea -

TBD -

West Brom -

Tottenham -

TBD -

Aston Villa -

Newcastle Utd -

TBD -

Bournemouth -

Manchester City -

TBD -

Halifax 0

Exeter 2

Wycombe 2

Plymouth 0

Salford 2

Lincoln City 1

Tamworth 0

Leyton Orient 1

Rotherham 1

Swindon 2

Bolton 2

Huddersfield 1

Grimsby 3

Ebbsfleet 1

Wealdstone 1

Southend 0

Chelmsford 4

Braintree 1

Weston-super-Mare 2

Aldershot 1

Wolves -

TBD -

Sutton 2

Telford 1

South Shields 1

Shrewsbury 3

Liverpool -

TBD -

Peterborough 1

Cardiff 0

Barnsley 3

York City 2

Manchester United -

TBD -

Brighton -

Stoke City -

TBD -

Coventry -

Fulham -

TBD -

Middlesbrough -

Stevenage 0

Chesterfield 1

Crewe 1

Doncaster 2

TBD -

Southampton -

Cheltenham 1

Bradford City 0

Buxton 2

Chatham 1

TBD -

Leicester -

Burnley -

TBD -

Millwall -

Sheffield Utd -

TBD -

Gainsborough 1

Accrington 2

Mansfield 3

Harrogate 2

Portsmouth -

TBD -

Arsenal -

Preston -

TBD -

Wigan 2

Hemel Hempstead 1

Spennymoor 0

Barrow 2

1/64-finals

Wrexham -

TBD -

Nottingham -

Ipswich -

TBD -

Blackpool 4

Carlisle 1

Hull City -

TBD -

Blackburn -

Charlton -

TBD -

Chelsea -

Port Vale 1

Bristol Rovers 0

Fleetwood Town 3

Luton 2

Bristol City -

TBD -

Watford -

Milton Keynes Dons 3

Oldham 1

TBD -

Oxford Utd -

Everton -

TBD -

Sunderland -

Boreham Wood 3

Newport 0

Brackley 1

Burton 3

West Ham -

TBD -

QPR -

Slough Town 1

Macclesfield 3

TBD -

Crystal Palace -

Sheffield Wed -

TBD -

Brentford -

Stockport County 0

Cambridge Utd 1

TBD -

Birmingham -

Derby -

TBD -

Leeds -

Norwich -

TBD -

Gateshead 0

Walsall 2

Swansea -

TBD -

West Brom -

Tottenham -

TBD -

Aston Villa -

Newcastle Utd -

TBD -

Bournemouth -

Manchester City -

TBD -

Exeter 4

Wycombe 0

Salford 4

Leyton Orient 0

Swindon 4

Bolton 0

Grimsby 4

Wealdstone 0

Chelmsford 0

Weston-super-Mare 2

Wolves -

TBD -

Sutton 1

Shrewsbury 2

Liverpool -

TBD -

Peterborough 0

Barnsley 1

Manchester United -

TBD -

Brighton -

Stoke City -

TBD -

Coventry -

Fulham -

TBD -

Middlesbrough -

Chesterfield 1

Doncaster 2

TBD -

Southampton -

Cheltenham 6

Buxton 2

TBD -

Leicester -

Burnley -

TBD -

Millwall -

Sheffield Utd -

TBD -

Accrington 2

Mansfield 3

Portsmouth -

TBD -

Arsenal -

Preston -

TBD -

Wigan 3

Barrow 2

1/32-finals

Wrexham 4

Nottingham 3

Ipswich 2

Blackpool 1

Hull City 1

Blackburn 0

Charlton 1

Chelsea 5

Port Vale 1

Fleetwood Town 0

Bristol City 5

Watford 1

Milton Keynes Dons 1

Oxford Utd 2

Everton 1

Sunderland 2

Boreham Wood 0

Burton 5

West Ham 2

QPR 1

Macclesfield 2

Crystal Palace 1

Sheffield Wed 0

Brentford 2

Cambridge Utd 2

Birmingham 3

Derby 1

Leeds 3

Norwich 5

Walsall 1

Swansea 2

West Brom 3

Tottenham 1

Aston Villa 2

Newcastle Utd 4

Bournemouth 3

Manchester City 10

Exeter 1

Salford 3

Swindon 2

Grimsby 3

Weston-super-Mare 2

Wolves 6

Shrewsbury 1

Liverpool 4

Barnsley 1

Manchester United 1

Brighton 2

Stoke City 1

Coventry 0

Fulham 3

Middlesbrough 1

Doncaster 2

Southampton 3

Cheltenham 0

Leicester 2

Burnley 5

Millwall 1

Sheffield Utd 3

Mansfield 4

Portsmouth 1

Arsenal 4

Preston 0

Wigan 1

1/16-finals

Wrexham 1

Ipswich 0

Hull City 0

Chelsea 4

Port Vale 1

Bristol City 0

Oxford Utd 0

Sunderland 1

Burton 0

West Ham 1

Macclesfield 0

Brentford 1

Birmingham 1

Leeds 2

Norwich 3

West Brom 1

Aston Villa 1

Newcastle Utd 3

Manchester City 2

Salford 0

Grimsby 0

Wolves 1

Liverpool 3

Brighton 0

Stoke City 1

Fulham 2

Southampton 2

Leicester 1

Burnley 1

Mansfield 2

Arsenal 4

Wigan 0

1/8-finals

Wrexham 2

Chelsea 4

Port Vale 1

Sunderland 0

West Ham 3

Brentford 2

Leeds 3

Norwich 0

Newcastle Utd 1

Manchester City 3

Wolves 1

Liverpool 3

Fulham 0

Southampton 1

Mansfield 1

Arsenal 2

Quarter-finals

Chelsea 7

Port Vale 0

West Ham 2

Leeds 3

Manchester City 4

Liverpool 0

Southampton 2

Arsenal 1

Semi-finals

Chelsea 1

Leeds 0

Manchester City 2

Southampton 1

Final

Chelsea 0

Manchester City 1

Newcastle Utd vs Bournemouth

England

Newcastle Utd

Bournemouth

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

Newcastle Utd Compare

Bournemouth Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Newcastle Utd

Bournemouth

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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