Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Newcastle Utd vs Liverpool

England England

Premier League St. James' Park, Newcastle
Sun, Aug 23, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Newcastle Utd host Liverpool in the Premier League. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Newcastle Utd have averaged 1.73 scored and 1.97 conceded recently, against Liverpool's 1.97 scored and 1.39 conceded. Head-to-head, Newcastle Utd have won 1 to Liverpool's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Jan 31, 2026, ending 4:1. xG projections (1.75 - 1.69) back Liverpool to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Newcastle Utd
20%
Draws
40%
Liverpool
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Liverpool carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Newcastle Utd Clean Sheet 68%
Liverpool Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newcastle Utd Liverpool
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 15
Draws 4 5
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.73 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Premier League
Liverpool vs Newcastle Utd
4:1
Aug 25, 2025 Premier League
Newcastle Utd vs Liverpool
2:3
Mar 16, 2025 EFL Cup
Liverpool vs Newcastle Utd
1:2
Feb 26, 2025 Premier League
Liverpool vs Newcastle Utd
2:0
Dec 4, 2024 Premier League
Newcastle Utd vs Liverpool
3:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newcastle Utd 41 / 100
Liverpool 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newcastle Utd Liverpool

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEW Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 6:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Newcastle Utd scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

Liverpool has conceded goals in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Recent resilience: Newcastle Utd stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Newcastle Utd VS Liverpool
1.5 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Newcastle Utd

(Home)
29 Jul
Bristol City
4 : 1
Newcastle Utd
25 Jul
Gateshead
1 : 1
Newcastle Utd
18 Jul
Newcastle Utd
3 : 0
Darlington FC
24 May
Fulham
2 : 0
Newcastle Utd
17 May
Newcastle Utd
3 : 1
West Ham
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Liverpool

(Away)
02 Aug
Liverpool
2 : 4
Leeds
29 Jul
Liverpool
1 : 0
Wrexham
25 Jul
Liverpool
4 : 2
Sunderland
24 May
Liverpool
1 : 1
Brentford
15 May
Aston Villa
4 : 2
Liverpool
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arsenal 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Aston Villa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Chelsea 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Everton 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Fulham 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Liverpool 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Manchester City 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Manchester United 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Newcastle Utd 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Sunderland 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Tottenham 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Coventry 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 Crystal Palace 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Hull City 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Ipswich 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Bournemouth 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 Leeds 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
19 Nottingham 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
20 Brentford 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)