Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Newport vs Harrogate

England England

League Two 2025/2026 Rodney Parade, Newport
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Opoku N.
Assist: Lloyd B.
39' Event
Evans J.
Assist: Slater J.
45'
Evans J.

AI Match Summary

Newport in this League Two 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Newport.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Newport
22%
Draws
60%
Harrogate
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Harrogate

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Newport at 2 per game, Harrogate at 1.5.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Harrogate taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Newport here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Newport Clean Sheet 20%
Harrogate Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newport Harrogate
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 4 5
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 2 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 League Two
Newport vs Harrogate
2:1
Oct 25, 2025 League Two
Harrogate vs Newport
0:3
Mar 15, 2025 League Two
Newport vs Harrogate
3:0
Oct 12, 2024 League Two
Harrogate vs Newport
1:0
Feb 27, 2024 League Two
Harrogate vs Newport
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newport Compare

Top Goalscorer Opoku N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thomas J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Harrogate Compare

Top Goalscorer Evans J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newport 20 / 100
Harrogate 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newport Harrogate

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Harrogate let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Newport remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Newport's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Newport VS Harrogate
2 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Newport

(Home)
28 Jul
Newport
0 : 4
Reading
25 Jul
Bath City
2 : 2
Newport
21 Jul
Bristol City
0 : 0
Newport
11 Jul
Gloucester City
2 : 1
Newport
08 Jul
Newport City
0 : 5
Newport
Page 1 of 6

Harrogate

(Away)
25 Jul
Harrogate
2 : 2
Doncaster
21 Jul
South Shields
1 : 2
Harrogate
18 Jul
Cleethorpes
0 : 1
Harrogate
11 Jul
Guiseley
1 : 2
Harrogate
02 May
Harrogate
1 : 2
Barnet
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bromley462415771:4687
2Milton Keynes Dons462414886:4586
3Cambridge Utd462216866:3382
4Salford462561561:5181
5Notts County462481474:5280
6Chesterfield462116971:5679
7Grimsby4622121274:5078
8Barnet4621131270:5376
9Swindon462291570:5975
10Oldham4618141460:4468
11Crewe4619101764:5867
12Colchester4618121662:4966
13Walsall4618111756:5665
14Bristol Rovers461952256:6562
15Fleetwood Town4615161557:5861
16Accrington4614112147:5853
17Gillingham4613141953:7253
18Cheltenham4614102253:7952
19Shrewsbury4613102342:6949
20Newport461272748:7743
21Tranmere4610112554:7941
22Crawley Town468162244:6840
23Harrogate461092739:6839
24Barrow46992845:7836
Promotion - League One (Main)
Promotion - League Two 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League (Main)