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Newroz vs Al Najaf - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

70'
Harouna I.
80' Event
Mohammed I.
90' Event
Ridha Jalil M.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Newroz and Al Najaf finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Newroz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Newroz
30%
Draws
27%
Al Najaf
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Newroz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Newroz carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Newroz's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Newroz Clean Sheet 68%
Al Najaf Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newroz Al Najaf
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 4
Draws 8 5
Losses 7 20
Goals Scored 1.48 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.83 1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Newroz
2:1
Feb 20, 2026 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Najaf
2:0
May 8, 2025 Stars League
Al Najaf vs Newroz
0:1
Oct 26, 2024 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Najaf
2:1
Jun 23, 2024 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Najaf
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newroz Compare

Top Goalscorer Mohammed I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ridha Jalil M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.92

Al Najaf Compare

Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newroz 95 / 100
Al Najaf 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newroz Al Najaf

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newroz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newroz's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Al Najaf let in goals in 93% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Newroz remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Newroz VS Al Najaf
1.5 Goals Scored 1.33
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.17
75% Over 1.5 83%
63% Over 2.5 67%
13% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Newroz

(Home)
19 Sept
Ghaz Al Shamal
0 : 0
Newroz
14 Sept
Al Golan
0 : 2
Newroz
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0
Al Mosul
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2
Newroz
30 Aug
Newroz
0 : 0
Duhok
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Al Najaf

(Away)
01 Jun
Al Najaf
1 : 0
Al Zawraa
28 May
Al Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
24 May
Naft Missan
2 : 1
Al Najaf
20 May
Al Najaf
2 : 5
Al Karkh
16 May
Zakho
1 : 1
Al Najaf
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)