Sport Picks

Iraq

Stars League

Al Zawraa

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Newroz play Al Zawraa in the Stars League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Newroz averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1 conceded. Al Zawraa averaged 1.41 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Newroz won 1, Al Zawraa won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 7, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Newroz and 1.50 for Al Zawraa. This points to a Al Zawraa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Newroz

24%

Draws

40%

Al Zawraa

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Al Zawraa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Newroz picked up more points recently compared to Al Zawraa.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.50 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 73%

Over 2.5 Goals 45%

Over 3.5 Goals 27%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

Newroz Clean Sheet 16%

Al Zawraa Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 66%

Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Newroz	Al Zawraa
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	15	13
Draws	6	10
Losses	9	6
Goals Scored	1.37	1.41
Goals Conceded	1	1.03
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Stars League

Newroz vs Al Zawraa

Possession: 43% - 45% Cards: 3 - 0

1:2

Nov 21, 2025 Stars League

Al Zawraa vs Newroz

Possession: 42% - 42% Cards: 1 - 0

2:1

Feb 15, 2025 Stars League

Newroz vs Al Zawraa

Possession: 56% - 52% Cards: 2 - 0

1:1

Nov 1, 2024 Stars League

Al Zawraa vs Newroz

Possession: 53% - 59% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Jul 1, 2024 Stars League

Newroz vs Al Zawraa

Possession: 43% - 57% Cards: 3 - 3

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newroz Compare

Top Goalscorer Neto Acara

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Al Zawraa Compare

Top Goalscorer Hashem A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Riascos B.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newroz 36 / 100

Al Zawraa 39 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Newroz Al Zawraa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Al Zawraa or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +28.5%

3.57

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.2%

2.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Newroz attacking → ← attacking Al Zawraa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newroz scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Al Zawraa let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Newroz went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Al Zawraa lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 49

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	38	27	8	3	62:28	89
2	Al Shorta	38	24	8	6	69:32	80
3	Erbil	38	23	10	5	59:32	79
4	Al Zawraa	38	17	15	6	50:32	66
5	Al-Karma	38	17	14	7	53:26	65
6	Al Talaba	38	18	11	9	53:38	65
7	Al Karkh	38	16	12	10	51:41	60
8	Newroz	38	16	6	16	48:47	54
9	Zakho	38	14	11	13	49:45	53
10	Duhok	38	13	11	14	44:45	50
11	Diyala	38	13	10	15	40:42	49
12	Al Naft	38	11	15	12	33:34	48
13	Al Mosul	38	11	14	13	46:49	47
14	Al Gharraf	38	11	11	16	40:43	44
15	Naft Missan	38	11	10	17	48:57	43
16	Al Minaa	38	9	13	16	38:47	40
17	Al Kahraba	37	11	5	21	44:56	38
18	Baghdad	38	10	7	21	47:68	37
19	Al Najaf	37	6	5	26	31:68	23
20	Al-Qassim	38	0	6	32	21:96	6