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Newroz vs Karbala

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Panom G.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2024/2025 game between Newroz and Karbala finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Newroz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Newroz
30%
Draws
23%
Karbala
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Newroz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Newroz come out ahead of Karbala on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Newroz's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Stars League 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 47.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Newroz Clean Sheet 68%
Karbala Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newroz Karbala
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 15 2
Draws 6 5
Losses 10 20
Goals Scored 1.42 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.85
Expected Goals (xG) 0.72 0.89
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 18, 2025 Stars League
Newroz vs Karbala
1:0
Sep 21, 2024 Stars League
Karbala vs Newroz
0:0
Mar 31, 2024 Stars League
Karbala vs Newroz
2:4
Nov 30, 2023 Stars League
Newroz vs Karbala
3:0
May 5, 2023 Stars League
Newroz vs Karbala
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newroz Compare

Top Goalscorer Panom G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.55
Avg xA / game 0.36

Karbala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.81
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newroz 51 / 100
Karbala 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newroz Karbala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newroz scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Karbala has conceded goals in 89% of their last 27 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Newroz went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Newroz VS Karbala
1.25 Goals Scored 0.4
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.2
75% Over 1.5 20%
63% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Newroz

(Home)
14 Aug
Newroz
3 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
01 Jun
Al Naft
2 : 1
Newroz
27 May
Newroz
1 : 1
Al Mosul
20 May
Newroz
2 : 1
Zakho
16 May
Erbil
0 : 1
Newroz
Page 1 of 7

Karbala

(Away)
16 Aug
Al Shorta
1 : 1
Karbala
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
04 Jul
Karbala
2 : 3
Al-Hudod
27 Jun
Karbala
2 : 4
Al Naft
18 Jun
Newroz
1 : 0
Karbala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Shorta 38 26 9 3 75:23 87
2 Al Zawraa 38 23 8 7 56:28 77
3 Zakho 38 20 11 7 57:25 71
4 Al Talaba 38 18 9 11 40:27 63
5 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 17 9 12 51:43 60
6 Al Naft 38 15 14 9 32:27 59
7 Duhok 38 16 9 13 47:41 57
8 Al-Karma 38 15 11 12 43:35 56
9 Newroz 38 14 11 13 46:41 53
10 Al-Qassim 38 13 13 12 43:43 52
11 Naft Missan 38 14 9 15 42:46 51
12 Erbil 38 15 5 18 49:61 50
13 Al Kahraba 38 12 13 13 39:41 49
14 Al Najaf 38 11 13 14 37:36 46
15 Al Karkh 38 12 10 16 40:49 46
16 Al Minaa 38 11 10 17 39:44 43
17 Diyala 38 10 11 17 31:50 41
18 Naft Al-Basra 38 8 9 21 32:57 33
19 Al-Hudod 38 8 2 28 37:79 26
20 Karbala 38 4 10 24 26:66 22
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2025/2026 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2024/2025 (Relegation)