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Newroz vs Karbala - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Panom G.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2024/2025 game between Newroz and Karbala finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Newroz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%
Newroz
20%
Draws
17%
Karbala
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Newroz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

63% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Newroz come out ahead of Karbala on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Newroz's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Stars League 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Newroz Clean Sheet 68%
Karbala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newroz Karbala
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 15 3
Draws 8 6
Losses 6 18
Goals Scored 1.48 0.81
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 18, 2025 Stars League
Newroz vs Karbala
1:0
Sep 21, 2024 Stars League
Karbala vs Newroz
0:0
Mar 31, 2024 Stars League
Karbala vs Newroz
2:4
Nov 30, 2023 Stars League
Newroz vs Karbala
3:0
May 5, 2023 Stars League
Newroz vs Karbala
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newroz Compare

Top Goalscorer Panom G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Karbala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newroz 95 / 100
Karbala 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newroz Karbala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newroz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newroz scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Karbala has conceded goals in 85% of their last 27 outings.

Solid form: Newroz remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Newroz VS Karbala
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Newroz

(Home)
19 Sept
Ghaz Al Shamal
0 : 0
Newroz
14 Sept
Al Golan
0 : 2
Newroz
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0
Al Mosul
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2
Newroz
30 Aug
Newroz
0 : 0
Duhok
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Karbala

(Away)
18 Sept
Karbala
0 : 3
Erbil
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
07 Sept
Karbala
2 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
04 Sept
Karbala
1 : 0
Al Karkh
30 Aug
Al Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Shorta 38 26 9 3 75:23 87
2 Al Zawraa 38 23 8 7 56:28 77
3 Zakho 38 20 11 7 57:25 71
4 Al Talaba 38 18 9 11 40:27 63
5 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 17 9 12 51:43 60
6 Al Naft 38 15 14 9 32:27 59
7 Duhok 38 16 9 13 47:41 57
8 Al Karma 38 15 11 12 43:35 56
9 Newroz 38 14 11 13 46:41 53
10 Al Qassim 38 13 13 12 43:43 52
11 Naft Missan 38 14 9 15 42:46 51
12 Erbil 38 15 5 18 49:61 50
13 Al Kahraba 38 12 13 13 39:41 49
14 Al Najaf 38 11 13 14 37:36 46
15 Al Karkh 38 12 10 16 40:49 46
16 Al Minaa 38 11 10 17 39:44 43
17 Diyala 38 10 11 17 31:50 41
18 Naft Al Basra 38 8 9 21 32:57 33
19 Al Hudod 38 8 2 28 37:79 26
20 Karbala 38 4 10 24 26:66 22
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2025/2026 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2024/2025 (Relegation)