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Newroz vs Trosa-Vagnharads SK

Sweden Sweden

Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2020
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Newroz play Trosa-Vagnharads SK in the Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2020. Newroz are favorites here. Recently, Newroz averaged 1.65 goals scored and 3 conceded. Trosa-Vagnharads SK averaged 1.67 goals scored and 2.58 conceded. In past meetings, Newroz won 0, Trosa-Vagnharads SK won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 5, 2020 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Newroz and 1.00 for Trosa-Vagnharads SK. This points to a Newroz double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Newroz
25%
Draws
15%
Trosa-Vagnharads SK
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Newroz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Newroz picked up more points recently compared to Trosa-Vagnharads SK.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 95%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 48%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Newroz Clean Sheet 23%
Trosa-Vagnharads SK Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 86%
Second Half Goal 90%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newroz Trosa-Vagnharads SK
Matches Played 17 36
Wins 3 9
Draws 2 9
Losses 12 18
Goals Scored 1.65 1.67
Goals Conceded 3 2.58

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2020 Division 2 - Södra Svealand
Newroz vs Trosa-Vagnharads SK
1:3
May 16, 2020 Division 2 - Södra Svealand
Trosa-Vagnharads SK vs Newroz
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newroz 59 / 100
Trosa-Vagnharads SK 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newroz Trosa-Vagnharads SK

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newroz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Newroz & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8%
1.35
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Newroz attacking → ← attacking Trosa-Vagnharads SK

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newroz scored in 71% of their last 17 games.

Trosa-Vagnharads SK let in goals in 92% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Newroz went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Trosa-Vagnharads SK lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

11 Points in last 5 36
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Assyriska FF13101237:1131
2Atvidaberg13101233:1831
3Forward1393132:1430
4Tyreso1391331:1528
5Varmbols1354424:2119
6Kumla1353531:2618
7Arameisk-Syrianska1352619:2817
8Trosa-Vagnharads SK1344520:2516
9IFK Eskilstuna1342717:2814
10Gute1334617:2513
11Huddinge1333720:2612
12Rynninge1332815:2811
13Assyriska IF13301014:309
14Newroz1322919:348