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Ngozi City vs Bumamuru - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Burundi Burundi

Primus League
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ngozi City host Bumamuru in the Primus League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Bumamuru have shipped 1.24 goals a game lately, while Ngozi City have conceded 1.41 and scored 1.31. Past meetings favor Ngozi City slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 14, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.31 - 1.19) back Ngozi City to edge this. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Ngozi City
15%
Draws
37%
Bumamuru
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ngozi City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Ngozi City's 1.31 goals per match outpaces what Bumamuru have produced (1.24).
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Ngozi City Clean Sheet 20%
Bumamuru Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ngozi City Bumamuru
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 10
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.31 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Primus League
Ngozi City vs Bumamuru
0:0
Nov 2, 2025 Primus League
Bumamuru vs Ngozi City
0:1
Feb 9, 2025 Primus League
Bumamuru vs Ngozi City
2:0
Nov 16, 2024 Primus League
Ngozi City vs Bumamuru
2:2
Jan 4, 2020 Primus League
Ngozi City vs Bumamuru
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ngozi City 32 / 100
Bumamuru 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ngozi City Bumamuru

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ngozi City found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Bumamuru conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Ngozi City remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ngozi City VS Bumamuru
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ngozi City

(Home)
03 Oct
Aigle Noir
2 : 1
Ngozi City
27 Sept
Ngozi City
1 : 0
Kayanza United
30 Aug
Ngozi City
2 : 1
Inter Star
23 Aug
Vital'O
2 : 1
Ngozi City
16 Aug
Ngozi City
2 : 0
Young Star
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Bumamuru

(Away)
09 Oct
Young Star
0 : 3
Bumamuru
04 Oct
Bumamuru
0 : 1
Flambeau du Centre
20 Sept
Olympic Star
3 : 1
Bumamuru
28 Aug
Bumamuru
2 : 0
Musongati
22 Aug
Panthere Noir
1 : 1
Bumamuru
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Royal Vision 5 4 1 0 14:3 13
2 Muzinga 5 3 1 1 7:3 10
3 Aigle Noir 5 3 1 1 10:7 10
4 Le Messager Ngozi 4 3 1 0 4:1 10
5 Ngozi City 5 3 0 2 7:5 9
6 Rukinzo 4 2 2 0 9:1 8
7 Vital'O 5 2 2 1 7:10 8
8 Bumamuru 6 2 1 3 7:6 7
9 Olympic Star 5 1 3 1 5:5 6
10 Flambeau du Centre 4 1 2 1 3:3 5
11 Kayanza United 5 0 4 1 2:3 4
12 Never Give Up Academy 4 1 1 2 2:4 4
13 Musongati 5 1 1 3 3:7 4
14 Inter Star 4 0 2 2 4:6 2
15 Panthere Noir 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
16 Young Star 6 0 1 5 2:19 1
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)