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Ngozi City vs Kayanza United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Primus League
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AI Match Summary

The Primus League game between Ngozi City and Kayanza United finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ngozi City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Ngozi City
35%
Draws
26%
Kayanza United
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ngozi City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

26% / Low Confidence
  • Ngozi City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Primus League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Ngozi City Clean Sheet 20%
Kayanza United Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ngozi City Kayanza United
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 6
Draws 6 14
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1.27 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Primus League
Ngozi City vs Kayanza United
1:0
Mar 15, 2026 Primus League
Kayanza United vs Ngozi City
0:0
Sep 18, 2025 Primus League
Ngozi City vs Kayanza United
0:0
Feb 23, 2025 Primus League
Kayanza United vs Ngozi City
0:1
Nov 10, 2024 Primus League
Ngozi City vs Kayanza United
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ngozi City 36 / 100
Kayanza United 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ngozi City Kayanza United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kayanza United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ngozi City scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Kayanza United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Ngozi City went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ngozi City VS Kayanza United
1 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ngozi City

(Home)
11 Oct
Ngozi City
0 : 5
Royal Vision
03 Oct
Aigle Noir
2 : 1
Ngozi City
27 Sept
Ngozi City
1 : 0
Kayanza United
30 Aug
Ngozi City
2 : 1
Inter Star
23 Aug
Vital'O
2 : 1
Ngozi City
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Kayanza United

(Away)
10 Oct
Kayanza United
1 : 1
Aigle Noir
04 Oct
Kayanza United
1 : 1
Inter Star
27 Sept
Ngozi City
1 : 0
Kayanza United
30 Aug
Kayanza United
1 : 1
Vital'O
19 Aug
Young Star
0 : 0
Kayanza United
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Royal Vision 6 5 1 0 19:3 16
2 Muzinga 6 4 1 1 9:4 13
3 Aigle Noir 6 3 2 1 11:8 11
4 Le Messager Ngozi 5 3 1 1 5:4 10
5 Olympic Star 6 2 3 1 6:5 9
6 Ngozi City 6 3 0 3 7:10 9
7 Rukinzo 4 2 2 0 9:1 8
8 Vital'O 5 2 2 1 7:10 8
9 Bumamuru 6 2 1 3 7:6 7
10 Musongati 6 2 1 3 6:8 7
11 Flambeau du Centre 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
12 Kayanza United 6 0 5 1 3:4 5
13 Never Give Up Academy 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
14 Inter Star 4 0 2 2 4:6 2
15 Panthere Noir 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
16 Young Star 6 0 1 5 2:19 1
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)