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Nicaragua vs Guadeloupe - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

Gold Cup Estadio Nacional de Futbol, Managua
Our Tip

Match Events

54'
Barrera J.
63'
Sub
Phaeton M. In: Senneville C.
Out: Phaeton M.
63'
Sub
David F. In: Bevis K.
Out: David F.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Nicaragua
15%
Draws
85%
Guadeloupe
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guadeloupe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Guadeloupe carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Guadeloupe are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Guadeloupe arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Guadeloupe, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Guadeloupe here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 97%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Nicaragua Clean Sheet 14%
Guadeloupe Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nicaragua Guadeloupe
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 9 14
Draws 6 3
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 1.19 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.61 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.53 1.58
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2025 Gold Cup
Nicaragua vs Guadeloupe
0:1
Mar 22, 2025 Gold Cup
Guadeloupe vs Nicaragua
1:0
Jul 10, 2009 Gold Cup
Guadeloupe vs Nicaragua
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nicaragua Compare

Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77

Guadeloupe Compare

Top Goalscorer Mirval R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.44
Avg xA / game 0.88

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nicaragua 11 / 100
Guadeloupe 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nicaragua Guadeloupe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guadeloupe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Difficult form: Guadeloupe registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Nicaragua found the back of the net in 58% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Guadeloupe conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.33 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Nicaragua VS Guadeloupe
0.63 Goals Scored 1.29
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.43
88% Over 1.5 86%
38% Over 2.5 86%
25% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Nicaragua

(Home)
05 Oct
Nicaragua
1 : 2
Dominican Republic
02 Oct
Nicaragua
0 : 3
Costa Rica
28 Sept
Curacao
6 : 1
Nicaragua
25 Sept
Dominican Republic
3 : 2
Nicaragua
05 Jun
Paraguay
4 : 0
Nicaragua
Page 1 of 7

Guadeloupe

(Away)
05 Oct
Guadeloupe
0 : 1
Saint Lucia
02 Oct
Saint Lucia
3 : 0
Guadeloupe
28 Sept
Guadeloupe
2 : 2
Barbados
25 Sept
Bermuda
1 : 2
Guadeloupe
24 Jun
Guadeloupe
2 : 3
Guatemala
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Costa Rica 13
Belize 1
Jamaica 4
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1
Honduras 7
Bermuda 3
Guatemala 4
Guyana 3
Trinidad & Tobago 6
Cuba 1
Martinique 0
Suriname 2
Nicaragua 0
Guadeloupe 2