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Nice vs Lille

France France

Ligue 1 Allianz Riviera, Nice
Sun, Sep 20, 2026
VS
03:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nice host Lille in the Ligue 1. This one's hard to separate. Nice have averaged 1.15 scored and 1.36 conceded recently, against Lille's 1.43 scored and 0.89 conceded. Head-to-head, Nice have won 1 to Lille's 1, with 3 draws. They last met on Apr 18, 2026, ending 0:0. The numbers (1.13 xG vs 1.56) point toward Lille. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Nice
35%
Draws
47%
Lille
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lille

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lille lately — more wins on the board than Nice.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Lille taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Nice Clean Sheet 15%
Lille Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nice Lille
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 9 13
Draws 12 8
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.15 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.36 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Ligue 1
Lille vs Nice
0:0
Oct 29, 2025 Ligue 1
Nice vs Lille
2:0
Jan 17, 2025 Ligue 1
Lille vs Nice
2:1
Nov 10, 2024 Ligue 1
Nice vs Lille
2:2
May 19, 2024 Ligue 1
Lille vs Nice
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nice 23 / 100
Lille 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nice Lille

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lille Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Nice went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Nice scored in 58% of their last 33 games.

Lille has conceded goals in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nice VS Lille
1 Goals Scored 2.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nice

(Home)
12 Sept
Auxerre
1 : 0
Nice
05 Sept
Nice
1 : 1
Le Mans
30 Aug
Paris FC
3 : 0
Nice
22 Aug
Nice
0 : 0
Lorient
15 Aug
Hull City
0 : 0
Nice
Page 1 of 7

Lille

(Away)
08 Sept
Lille
2 : 3
Betis
03 Sept
Toulouse
0 : 1
Lille
28 Aug
Lille
2 : 2
PSG
23 Aug
Angers
0 : 2
Lille
15 Aug
Everton
1 : 1
Lille
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rennes 4 3 1 0 8:5 10
2 Monaco 3 3 0 0 5:1 9
3 Paris FC 3 2 1 0 6:2 7
4 Lyon 3 2 1 0 6:2 7
5 Lille 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
6 Strasbourg 3 2 0 1 8:7 6
7 Brest 3 1 2 0 6:5 5
8 Lorient 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
9 Troyes 3 1 1 1 4:7 4
10 Lens 3 1 0 2 6:5 3
11 Marseille 4 1 0 3 6:6 3
12 Angers 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
13 Le Mans 3 0 2 1 5:6 2
14 PSG 3 0 2 1 5:6 2
15 Nice 3 0 2 1 1:4 2
16 Le Havre 3 0 1 2 2:4 1
17 Toulouse 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
18 Auxerre 3 0 0 3 4:11 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)