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Nice vs Lille - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 1 Allianz Riviera, Nice
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Abdelmonem M.
22' Event
Ngoy N.
Own Goal
45'
Mandza Tsiendi X.

AI Match Summary

Nice in this Ligue 1 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nice.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Nice
20%
Draws
29%
Lille
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nice

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lille lately — more wins on the board than Nice.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Nice taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Nice Clean Sheet 18%
Lille Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nice Lille
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 13
Draws 9 7
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.03 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Ligue 1
Nice vs Lille
2:1
Apr 18, 2026 Ligue 1
Lille vs Nice
0:0
Oct 29, 2025 Ligue 1
Nice vs Lille
2:0
Jan 17, 2025 Ligue 1
Lille vs Nice
2:1
Nov 10, 2024 Ligue 1
Nice vs Lille
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nice Compare

Top Goalscorer Amoura M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Lille Compare

Top Goalscorer Ueda A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nice 76 / 100
Lille 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nice Lille

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nice Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lille's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Nice went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Nice scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nice VS Lille
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nice

(Home)
23 Oct
Brest
1 : 2
Nice
18 Oct
Lyon
2 : 1
Nice
11 Oct
Nice
2 : 1
Strasbourg
20 Sept
Nice
2 : 1
Lille
12 Sept
Auxerre
1 : 0
Nice
Page 1 of 6

Lille

(Away)
25 Oct
Monaco
1 : 1
Lille
21 Oct
Lille
2 : 4
Galatasaray
17 Oct
Lille
1 : 1
Brest
13 Oct
Arsenal
3 : 0
Lille
10 Oct
Lille
1 : 0
Le Havre
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 8 5 2 1 16:9 17
2 Rennes 8 5 1 2 18:14 16
3 Lille 8 4 3 1 11:6 15
4 Monaco 8 4 3 1 11:7 15
5 Lyon 8 4 2 2 13:7 14
6 Paris FC 8 4 2 2 13:9 14
7 Lens 8 4 1 3 16:12 13
8 Marseille 8 4 0 4 18:13 12
9 Lorient 8 3 3 2 7:6 12
10 Nice 8 3 2 3 8:10 11
11 Toulouse 8 2 4 2 12:11 10
12 Auxerre 8 3 1 4 12:18 10
13 Brest 8 2 3 3 14:12 9
14 Angers 8 2 2 4 9:15 8
15 Le Mans 8 1 4 3 11:16 7
16 Strasbourg 8 2 1 5 12:18 7
17 Troyes 8 1 2 5 5:16 5
18 Le Havre 8 0 2 6 8:15 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)