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Nigeria vs Morocco - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah, Rabat
Wed, Jan 14, 2026
0 - 1
08:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Bassey C.
77'
Onyedika R.
83'
Sub
Onyedika R. In: Simon M.
Out: Onyedika R.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Morocco advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Nigeria
30%
Draws
47%
Morocco
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Morocco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Morocco come out ahead of Nigeria on wins alone.
  • Morocco are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Morocco arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Morocco, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Nigeria Clean Sheet 13%
Morocco Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nigeria Morocco
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 16 26
Draws 7 6
Losses 7 1
Goals Scored 1.73 2.21
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.58
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 14, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Nigeria vs Morocco
0:1
Feb 4, 2018 African Nations Championship
Morocco vs Nigeria
4:0
Jan 25, 2014 African Nations Championship
Morocco vs Nigeria
3:4
Jan 27, 2004 Africa Cup of Nations
Nigeria vs Morocco
0:1
Feb 3, 2000 Africa Cup of Nations
Nigeria vs Morocco
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nigeria 27 / 100
Morocco 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nigeria Morocco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Morocco Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nigeria scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Nigeria remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Morocco conceded in 45% of 33 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Nigeria VS Morocco
1.63 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nigeria

(Home)
06 Oct
Russia
3 : 3
Nigeria
29 Sept
Guinea Bissau
3 : 0
Nigeria
25 Sept
Nigeria
2 : 1
Madagascar
10 Jun
Portugal
2 : 1
Nigeria
03 Jun
Poland
2 : 2
Nigeria
Page 1 of 6

Morocco

(Away)
04 Oct
Morocco
1 : 1
Mali
29 Sept
Lesotho
0 : 2
Morocco
25 Sept
Morocco
2 : 0
Gabon
09 Jul
France
2 : 0
Morocco
04 Jul
Canada
0 : 3
Morocco
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Mali 2
Tunisia 1
Senegal 3
Sudan 1
Egypt 3
Benin 1
Ivory Coast 3
Burkina Faso 0
Algeria 1
D.R. Congo 0
Nigeria 4
Mozambique 0
South Africa 1
Cameroon 2
Morocco 1
Tanzania 0
Quarter-finals
Mali 0
Senegal 1
Egypt 3
Ivory Coast 2
Algeria 0
Nigeria 2
Cameroon 0
Morocco 2
Semi-finals
Senegal 1
Egypt 0
Nigeria 0
Morocco 1
Final
Senegal 0
Morocco 3
Egypt 0
Nigeria 1