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Nijmegen vs Excelsior - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
Nijmegen Logo

Nijmegen

2 - 2
FT
Excelsior Logo

Excelsior

Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Monteiro J.
11' Event
Tahaui A.
Assist: Willumsson W. T.
43' Event
Garden D.
Assist: Yegoian I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Eredivisie matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Nijmegen
35%
Draws
41%
Excelsior
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Excelsior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Nijmegen haven't matched Excelsior's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Excelsior's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Eredivisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 87%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 87%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Nijmegen Clean Sheet 11%
Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nijmegen Excelsior
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 7 12
Draws 9 8
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.54 2
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2026 Eredivisie
Nijmegen vs Excelsior
2:2
Apr 4, 2026 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Nijmegen
0:2
Aug 9, 2025 Eredivisie
Nijmegen vs Excelsior
5:0
May 6, 2024 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Nijmegen
0:3
Aug 13, 2023 Eredivisie
Nijmegen vs Excelsior
3:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nijmegen Compare

Top Goalscorer Tahaui A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lebreton N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Excelsior Compare

Top Goalscorer Garden D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sulzbacher V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nijmegen 22 / 100
Excelsior 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nijmegen Excelsior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Excelsior Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:6
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nijmegen found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

Excelsior has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Nijmegen has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nijmegen VS Excelsior
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nijmegen

(Home)
10 Oct
Ajax
1 : 1
Nijmegen
20 Sept
Nijmegen
1 : 1
G.A. Eagles
17 Sept
Juventus
5 : 0
Nijmegen
12 Sept
Cambuur
3 : 0
Nijmegen
08 Sept
Nijmegen
2 : 2
Excelsior
Page 1 of 6

Excelsior

(Away)
11 Oct
Excelsior
1 : 5
Groningen
19 Sept
Ajax
2 : 2
Excelsior
13 Sept
Excelsior
1 : 2
Utrecht
08 Sept
Nijmegen
2 : 2
Excelsior
05 Sept
Willem II
0 : 3
Excelsior
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Feyenoord 8 6 2 0 27:7 20
2 PSV 8 6 1 1 26:10 19
3 AZ Alkmaar 8 6 1 1 18:8 19
4 Twente 8 5 2 1 16:8 17
5 Ajax 8 4 3 1 22:10 15
6 Sittard 8 4 2 2 14:15 14
7 Excelsior 7 3 2 2 15:9 11
8 Groningen 7 3 2 2 15:13 11
9 G.A. Eagles 8 2 5 1 19:17 11
10 Heerenveen 8 2 3 3 11:11 9
11 Nijmegen 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
12 Utrecht 8 2 2 4 14:25 8
13 Sparta Rotterdam 8 1 3 4 13:20 6
14 Telstar 7 1 2 4 5:12 5
15 Cambuur 7 1 2 4 10:19 5
16 Zwolle 7 1 1 5 6:20 4
17 Den Haag 7 0 2 5 7:17 2
18 Willem II 8 0 2 6 7:23 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)