Sport Picks

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Nissa vs Gelbison

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Terranova P.
34' Event
De Felice F.
58' Event
Rapisarda F.

AI Match Summary

Nissa in this Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 tie, finishing 4-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Nissa
20%
Draws
36%
Gelbison
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nissa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Nissa have won more games recently than Gelbison.
  • Nissa are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Nissa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Nissa, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Nissa have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Nissa Clean Sheet 68%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nissa Gelbison
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 18 15
Draws 8 7
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 1.6 1.23
Goals Conceded 0.7 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Nissa vs Gelbison
4:0
Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Nissa vs Gelbison
0:0
Sep 21, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Nissa
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nissa Compare

Top Goalscorer Terranova P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader De Felice F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Gelbison Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nissa 95 / 100
Gelbison 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nissa Gelbison

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nissa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nissa scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Solid form: Nissa remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Gelbison has conceded goals in 61% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 2.33 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Nissa VS Gelbison
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Nissa

(Home)
17 May
Nissa
0 : 0
Reggina
10 May
Nissa
4 : 0
Gelbison
03 May
Nissa
4 : 1
Paterno
26 Apr
Sambiase
1 : 1
Nissa
19 Apr
Nissa
3 : 0
Enna
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Gelbison

(Away)
11 Aug
Nocerina
3 : 0
Gelbison
10 May
Nissa
4 : 0
Gelbison
03 May
Gelbison
1 : 0
Gela
26 Apr
Enna
0 : 1
Gelbison
19 Apr
Gelbison
2 : 1
AS Acireale
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Nissa 4
Gelbison 0
Reggina 1
Athletic Palermo 0
Final
Nissa 0
Reggina 0