Sport Picks

Stadium Background

NK Krka vs Ilirija

Slovenia Slovenia

2. SNL 2025/2026 Portoval, Novo Mesto
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Urrutia A.
3' Event
Kovacevic Z.
25' Event
Urrutia A.

AI Match Summary

Ilirija in this 2. SNL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ilirija.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
NK Krka
15%
Draws
46%
Ilirija
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ilirija

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ilirija lately — more wins on the board than NK Krka.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on NK Krka taking it.
  • Regular 2. SNL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
NK Krka Clean Sheet 12%
Ilirija Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric NK Krka Ilirija
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 9
Draws 8 6
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.27 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 2. SNL
NK Krka vs Ilirija
1:4
Oct 12, 2025 2. SNL
Ilirija vs NK Krka
1:1
Mar 29, 2025 2. SNL
Ilirija vs NK Krka
1:1
Sep 13, 2024 2. SNL
NK Krka vs Ilirija
1:0
Mar 15, 2024 2. SNL
NK Krka vs Ilirija
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

NK Krka Compare

Top Goalscorer Kovacevic Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Ilirija Compare

Top Goalscorer Urrutia A.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Zulic A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

NK Krka 35 / 100
Ilirija 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
NK Krka Ilirija

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

NK Krka's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Ilirija conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: NK Krka remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

NK Krka VS Ilirija
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

NK Krka

(Home)
20 Sept
NK Krka
1 : 2
Jadran Dekani
12 Sept
Krsko Posavje
0 : 1
NK Krka
05 Sept
NK Krka
2 : 0
Jesenice
28 Aug
Primorje
3 : 2
NK Krka
21 Aug
NK Krka
2 : 3
Slovan Ljubljana
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Ilirija

(Away)
19 Sept
Ilirija
2 : 0
Krsko Posavje
12 Sept
Jesenice
3 : 1
Ilirija
04 Sept
Ilirija
0 : 0
Primorje
28 Aug
Slovan Ljubljana
2 : 1
Ilirija
22 Aug
Ilirija
2 : 0
Rudar
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosuplje 30 23 6 1 70:26 75
2 Nafta 30 23 6 1 65:23 75
3 Triglav 30 20 4 6 72:28 64
4 Beltinci 30 18 6 6 55:25 60
5 Tabor Sezana 30 15 5 10 37:33 50
6 Bistrica 30 13 6 11 50:36 45
7 Dravinja 30 10 7 13 32:44 37
8 Rudar 30 9 10 11 46:39 37
9 Bilje 30 9 7 14 27:47 34
10 Jadran Dekani 30 8 9 13 40:46 33
11 Slovan Ljubljana 30 9 5 16 32:52 32
12 NK Krka 30 6 11 13 32:51 29
13 Ilirija 30 6 9 15 38:52 27
14 Krsko Posavje 30 7 5 18 24:62 26
15 ND Gorica 30 4 10 16 31:45 22
16 Jesenice 30 4 6 20 26:68 18
Promotion - Prva liga (Main)
Promotion - Prva liga 2025/2026 (Relegation)