Sport Picks
Match Events
15'
15'
Rosso D.
18'
18'
Ferreira M.
27'
27'
Fraraccio F.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 4-2, with Nocerina advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
20%
23%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nocerina
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Gelbison carry the better recent record into this one.
- 57% — that's where the model lands on Nocerina taking it.
- Gelbison arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Nocerina, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Nocerina Clean Sheet 68%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nocerina | Gelbison |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 7 | 15 |
| Draws | 12 | 5 |
| Losses | 9 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.04 | 1.32 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.11 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 11, 2026 Club Friendly
Nocerina vs Gelbison
3:0
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Nocerina vs Gelbison
4:2
Feb 16, 2020 Serie D - Group H
Gelbison vs Nocerina
1:0
Oct 13, 2019 Serie D - Group H
Nocerina vs Gelbison
1:0
Apr 22, 2018 Serie D - Group I
Nocerina vs Gelbison
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nocerina Compare
Top Goalscorer Rosso D.
3 Goals Assists Leader Fraraccio F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Gelbison Compare
Top Goalscorer Ferreira M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Diabate Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nocerina 50 / 100
Gelbison 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nocerina Gelbison
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Nocerina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Nocerina scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.
Gelbison's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Nocerina stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Nocerina VS Gelbison
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Nocerina
(Home) 20 Sept
Bisceglie
3 : 1 Nocerina
16 Sept
Nocerina
3 : 2 Ischia
12 Sept
Manfredonia
2 : 2 Nocerina
06 Sept
Nocerina
2 : 1 Ebolitana
11 Aug
Nocerina
3 : 0 Gelbison
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Nocerina
3 : 2 Ischia
06 Sept
Nocerina
2 : 1 Ebolitana
11 Aug
Nocerina
3 : 0 Gelbison
03 May
Nocerina
0 : 1 Ischia
19 Apr
Nocerina
1 : 1 Flaminia
Page 1 of 3
Gelbison
(Away) 20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1 Gelbison
16 Sept
Gelbison
2 : 1 Budoni Calcio
13 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
2 : 1 Gelbison
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0 Afragolese
11 Aug
Nocerina
3 : 0 Gelbison
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1 Gelbison
13 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
2 : 1 Gelbison
11 Aug
Nocerina
3 : 0 Gelbison
10 May
Nissa
4 : 0 Gelbison
26 Apr
Enna
0 : 1 Gelbison
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Asti Calcio 2
Chisola 0
Ligorna 1
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 3
Sestri Levante 0
Tau 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
SCD Progresso 1
Pavia 2
Sant'Angelo 0
Prato 2
Montevarchi 1
Correggese 2
Imolese 1
Sondrio 1
Breno 0
Folgore Caratese 2
Club Milano 3
AC Milan U23 2
Varesina 3
Brusaporto 0
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Chievo 0
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Vigasio 2
Cjarlins Muzane 1
Brian Lignano 2
Luparense FC 0
Mestre 1
Fossombrone 0
Ancona 1
Foligno 0
Atletico Ascoli 2
Orvietana 2
Siena 0
Follonica Gavorrano 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Termoli 0
Albalonga 2
Aquila Calcio 1
Grosseto 0
Unipomezia 1
Trastevere Calcio 2
Budoni Calcio 0
Martina Calcio 3
Sarnese 1
Ferrandina 2
Francavilla 3
A.C. Savoia 2
Paganese 1
Citta di Fasano 3
Gravina 0
Nocerina 4
Gelbison 2
Sambiase 0
Reggina 1
Castrumfavara 3
Igea Virtus 1
Enna 0
Sancataldese 2
1/16-finals
Asti Calcio 3
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 0
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
Pavia 1
Prato 1
Correggese 4
Sondrio 0
Club Milano 3
Varesina 4
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Brian Lignano 0
Mestre 1
Ancona 1
Atletico Ascoli 0
Orvietana 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Albalonga 1
Unipomezia 3
Trastevere Calcio 1
Martina Calcio 1
Francavilla 2
A.C. Savoia 3
Citta di Fasano 4
Nocerina 3
Reggina 2
Castrumfavara 3
Sancataldese 2
1/8-finals
Asti Calcio 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 0
Correggese 1
Club Milano 1
Varesina 0
Este 1
Mestre 2
Ancona 2
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 0
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 3
Citta di Fasano 2
Nocerina 2
Castrumfavara 0
Quarter-finals
Pistoiese 2
Correggese 0
Club Milano 1
Mestre 0
Ancona 2
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 1
Nocerina 0
Semi-finals
Pistoiese 3
Club Milano 1
Ancona 2
Francavilla 1
Final
Pistoiese 3
Ancona 0
