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Noia vs Arosa SC

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Gabri Palmas
85'
Castineiras Figueira X.

AI Match Summary

Arosa SC in this Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arosa SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Noia
20%
Draws
46%
Arosa SC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Arosa SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Arosa SC have won more games recently than Noia.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Noia Clean Sheet 14%
Arosa SC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Noia Arosa SC
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 5 18
Draws 6 9
Losses 19 4
Goals Scored 0.77 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.02 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Noia vs Arosa SC
0:1
Oct 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Noia
5:2
Feb 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Noia vs Arosa SC
0:0
Sep 22, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Noia
0:2
May 13, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Noia
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Noia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.51

Arosa SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabri Palmas
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Noia 35 / 100
Arosa SC 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Noia Arosa SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arosa SC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arosa SC has conceded goals in 61% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Noia scored in 47% of their last 30 outings.

Noia has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Noia VS Arosa SC
1.29 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 0.75
71% Over 1.5 63%
57% Over 2.5 13%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Noia

(Home)
10 May
Noia
1 : 5
Gran Pena
03 May
Silva SD
5 : 2
Noia
25 Apr
Noia
3 : 0
Celtiga
19 Apr
Cambados
0 : 3
Noia
12 Apr
Noia
0 : 2
CD Boiro
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Arosa SC

(Away)
19 Sept
Basconia
2 : 2
Arosa SC
13 Sept
Arosa SC
0 : 4
Gernika Club
06 Sept
Amorebieta
2 : 2
Arosa SC
01 Aug
Arosa SC
3 : 1
Pontevedra
10 May
Arosa SC
3 : 2
Celtiga
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)