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Noia vs Somozas

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

46' Event
Cambon J.

AI Match Summary

Somozas in this Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Somozas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Noia
30%
Draws
23%
Somozas
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Noia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Somozas have won more games recently than Noia.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Noia Clean Sheet 68%
Somozas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Noia Somozas
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 5 11
Draws 6 12
Losses 19 10
Goals Scored 0.77 1
Goals Conceded 1.73 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.33 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Noia vs Somozas
0:1
Nov 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Somozas vs Noia
1:0
Mar 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Noia vs Somozas
2:1
Oct 20, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Somozas vs Noia
2:2
Feb 20, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Noia vs Somozas
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Noia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.67

Somozas Compare

Top Goalscorer Cambon J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Noia 42 / 100
Somozas 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Noia Somozas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Somozas let in goals in 67% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Noia's goal record stands at 47% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Noia has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Noia VS Somozas
1.29 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
71% Over 1.5 88%
57% Over 2.5 63%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Noia

(Home)
10 May
Noia
1 : 5
Gran Pena
03 May
Silva SD
5 : 2
Noia
25 Apr
Noia
3 : 0
Celtiga
19 Apr
Cambados
0 : 3
Noia
12 Apr
Noia
0 : 2
CD Boiro
Page 1 of 6

Somozas

(Away)
26 Sept
Antela
1 : 0
Somozas
20 Sept
Somozas
1 : 1
Pontevedra B
13 Sept
Lalin
1 : 0
Somozas
06 Sept
Somozas
0 : 0
Portonovo SD
10 May
Somozas
2 : 2
CD Boiro
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)